Predicting 2022 (updated 1jan22)

George Rebane

2022 will be another pivotal year in a growing string of such recent years.  Most predictions, save the premature happy dancing by Republicans, range between dour and cataclysmic.  A reader gives us a taste of that by pointing to James Howard Kunstler’s entry in Clusterfuck Nation with his ‘Forecast 2022 – Dumpster Fire Blazing on the Frontier of a Dark Age’.  So here are some of my prognostications with an invite for readers to add their own.  Please try to submit your entries before the first week of 2022 becomes history.

Since we know predicting is hard, especially about the future, and very little is certain, I will attach some quantitative probabilities to my efforts, and invite others to do the same.  We can then even determine who wins the 2022 Nostradamus Award, as I demonstrate in the coda.

1. Bumblebrain will not be president on 1 January 2023 (0.5); will not be president on 21 January 2025 (0.4); will serve out his full term (0.1).
2. Kamala will resign before 2022 election (0.6).
3. Covid will revert from pandemic to declared endemic (like the flu) status before 4 July 2022 (0.7).
4. Republicans will win the House in 2022 (0.8).
5. Republicans will win the Senate in 2022 (0.7).
6. Russia will invade Ukraine in 2022 (0.55).
7. China will invade Taiwan in 2022 (0.25).
8. Fed declared inflation will exceed 10% in 2022 (0.25).
9. Republicans will win at least 14 House seats from California (0.8).
10. The 25^th Amendment will be used to designate a new Vice President before the 2024 election (0.75).

More later, maybe.

Such a list of probability tagged predictions may be scored simply by taking the average of the ‘correct’ probabilities – i.e. probabilities that associate with the cases that come to pass.  For instance, in my list, if everything comes to pass with with Biden serving out a full term, Kamala does not resign, and China does not invade Taiwan, then my Nostradamus score – which ranges between 0 and 1 - would be (0.1+0.4+0.7+0.8+0.7+0.55+0.75+0.25+0.8+0.75)/10 = 0.58.

Jo Ann and I wish all of our readers and correspondents a productive and healthy new year.

[1jan22 update]  I just want to emphasize the reason for my #6 and #7 predictions.  Everyone in the world save America’s Democrat-prone electorate knows that the Team Biden is the weakest, most feckless, incompetent, and ignorant leadership the US has installed in the last 50 years (yes, even beating out the peanut farmer).  For either of Putin or Xi to invade would be a win for them ou two counts.  First, whatever our response, Americans tend to support their president during times of crisis.  That will assure a continuance in power of the weak and feckless Democrats.  Second, they get to achieve the next notch in their geo-strategic goals with the new territory they will then control.  What’s not to like in creating another crisis that Bumblebrain can’t handle?

Comments

[Walt]

LOL Emery, You Lefties have a pretty shitty record of doing anything substantially good. Like high taxes? Vote Proggy. Love choking regulation,, Vote the donkey party.
Then there is that monetary redistribution. Their hands are so deep in your pockets you would think their about to give ya' a hand job. Sorry,, no joy their either.

Mcclintock already says he's running. How many braying jackasses has he beat in the past?

[Paul Emery]

YOu miss the point Walt. Yes he's running but ot in a district that represents Nevada County. If you would have followed my link you would have seen that. Both La malfa and Mc Clintock are not representing Nevada County come next year. Do you have any idea who may?

[Paul Emery]

Can you show me a link for that Barry? My number is from 2020 elections. You may be projecting numbers based on the new redistricting on elections that have not yet been held so they are just estimates. Show me the link and I'll check it out. Either way thank goodness we won't be representated by La Malfa or McClintock in the future,

[Gregory]

Barry... you spoiled the mood... Punchy is now sobbing alone in the corner.

He so wanted to be in a blue district.

[Barry Pruett]

I saw the map and the registration totals today. It is plus eight in 2022. Open seat.

[Gregory]

Even better than not having LaMalfa, who wasn't bad... we won't have to suffer Audrey Denney no more.

It will be a different GOP candidate in orifice for Nirvana county next year, unless of course he is found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy (if the designated winner is a standard issue R cis-male)

[scenes]

" he is found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy"

At this point, I doubt it matters. The necrophiliacs represent a new and growing constituency in the Democratic party. I figure that LGBTN is a thing. As there's a barely functioning human in the executive office, it all fits somehow.

No doubt the redistricting gave the Democrats a seat or two as it's gerrymandering only when the Republicans do it. Come to think of it, it's not gerrymandering when the point is to draw some crazy-shaped polygon that gives you a majority-minority district. (Easy enough to show. California Trump votes are over a 1/3 of the voters in CA in 2020? CA House members are less than 1/5 Republican?)

[scenes]

BarryP: "I saw the map and the registration totals today. It is plus eight in 2022. Open seat."

Oh well. Game set match on that.

No doubt we'll see some scrabbling to retain a bit of self-respect rather than simply admitting that he screwed up.

Scoops: "You may be projecting numbers based on the new redistricting on elections that have not yet been held so they are just estimates."

Yup. There's no point in fighting human nature, the ego matters more than truth.

[scenes]

as an aside, and hopefully I did my maths correctly, it's funny how much more fairly represented Texas Democrats are in the House as opposed to the Republicans in California.

[Barry Pruett]

California is already so gerrymandered, redistributing does not matter that much. The “non-partisan” commission got even with Nunez for uncovering the Russia collusion crap. That’s about it.

[Bill Tozer]

I did not read the article….it was just click bait stuff. Headline read that CA redistricting would result in up to eight new D seats in CA.

I thought within myself, “A bigger share of a decreasing pie.”

The Cook Report is out for 2020. I did not read that either. To early, contestants not even set in stone yet. Think there is something called ‘primaries’ that come first before counting one’s chickens before they hatch.

As far as Paul’s “Here is some news NONE of you have noted.”…..well, Dr. Terry McAteer wrote a column noting the exact same thing in the Union many weeks ago. I noted it. He is the same dude that wrote how horribly is son, his own flesh and blood, the fruit of his loins, was treated by Kamala Harris while working on her Presidential Campaign. I had no reason to doubt the Doc or his son’s account….which is being verified by numerous seasoned veterans of the crazy heat of battle of political campaigns and they have only confirmed what a wretched person or VP is to work with or for.

Anyway, Paul won’t have Doug LaMallfa to kick around anymore. Or McClintock. Or Richard Milhouse Nixon.

I did get a kick out of the sheer excitement the local Dems had here about the prospects of their D candidate beating Doug. Forget the loser’s name, but it was a born woman from Redding. In Shasta County see received 30% of the vote, aka, 70% rejected here. The trend continued in the closest counties to her humble abode which she called home. She did best the further she got from those who know her….did great in Nevada County. The further away from Redding, the better she did. I reckon Placer County is further away than Nevada County, but still the excitement for her has highest here. Even Humboldt County gave the big thumbs down to her and off went her head.

Paul, thanks for the chuckles. Hope is a mainstay.

[Barry Pruett]

The new district is basically Placer, Nevada, Sierra, Plumas. Pretty red.

[Barry Pruett]

https://www.mymotherlode.com/news/local/2220073/republican-assemblyman-kiley-running-for-eastern-sierra-congressional-seat.html

Kevin Kiley.

[Paul Emery]

Bill writes about Audrey Denny that she "did great in Nevada County". Thanks for finally confirming that Nevada County is solid Blue. The new District 3 may well have a Republican edge but it will be less than we now suffer by being part of District 1 for sure.

[Bill Tozer]

Barry @ 9:19 am

It has to be 30 years since I was checking out the population make up of nearby counties. At the time, Alpine County has 1,500 voters. Thus, I am tempted to toss Sierra and Plumas County and call the new district Placer-Nevada County.

Congressional races are hard to forecast because one good candidate from either party can upset the apple cart. Who is running against who. How deep is the Dem bench matters less in local matters than say, Senate races. I like the folks in Lassen County. Lake County is pretty similar to Nevada County as far as demographics go. Penn Valley has a bigger population that GV. Go figure.

My cloudy ball says…..well, today it sez nuthin’ useful. :). And in my neck of the woods, there are so few voters that I don’t even have a precinct. Thus, I have no idea which color my hood votes. Maybe those American flags dotting the road might be a clue.

[Paul Emery]

Thanks for the entertainment guys (no women bother to come here). I'm off to Grey Lodge to see the Snow Geese-an annual trek.

cheers

[The Etonian Fox]

Sorry, I missed this one.
PE @ 7 Jan 9:15 AM

"I merely noted on my response that even a casual look at his beliefs reveals he is a hard core Neo Con of the ilk that led us into the Iraq war which disqualifies him as a credible source of wisdom since it was him and others like him that led us into that unnecessary and tragic war that led to thousands of America and Iraqi deaths and trillions of dollars in debt."

Flesh-Kincaid Grade Level for the sentence: 30.6
Flesch Reading Ease Score: 5.8
Reading Level: College graduate (Very difficult to read)
https://goodcalculators.com/flesch-kincaid-calculator/

My old school in which the training occurred and where the wars (used to be) won on the playing fields.

The French may be starting to construct their own l'ecole de guerre soon. Ours are too woke to be of much use.

[Bill Tozer]

Paul @ 10:13 am. Happy trails to you. Great day to get out of Nevada City. Are you taking your dog with you? My dogs would love to get out in the snow. They are made for it.

“I am all for misogyny except when used by the woke.” —A Scottish comedian who gets banned quite often. :)

Make sure to wear your face diaper, Paul. After all, President Biden and Jill wore their masks outside on a secluded beach with no humans around while walking the new first family’s dog.

[Bill Tozer]

PS to the Cuddly Teddy Bear of Broad Street, aka, Paul E.

This morning from Paul. “The new District 3 may well have a Republican edge but….”

Last night from Paul

“So both Repubs who currently represent our Blue County will be gone. We will be part of District 3 which currently has a Dem majority of 12% so our Blue majority will be….”
Posted by: Paul Emery | 07 January 2022 at 07:30 PM

What a difference a day makes. Last night is sooo yesterday. In the past, never to return.

I did finally cruise downtown Nevada City. I saw this dude who had a striking resemblance to Paul standing in front of a closed coffee cafe with a sign that read, Free Hugs. That’s our teddy bear! Better than being just another local sickles drunk.

[George Rebane]

Interesting that liberals only cite Repubs living outside the districts they represent. No mention is made or recognized that such behavior is bipartisan (e.g. Mad Max). I think it's just the projection of their own ignorance (from lamestream consumption) projected on others who, hopefully, are also equally limited in their awareness of national goings on.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-congress-living-outside-district-20151222-html-htmlstory.html

[Walt]

Nice try Embot. You think only Nevada county calls the shots

[Gregory]

I predict Punchy will punch the next GOP congresscritter elected by our fellow districans and neighbors, and do it indistinguishably from his punching of LaMalfa and McClintock.

It's an allergy.

[Don Bessee]

This was predictable no matter what the ponytail of ignorance's crew says -

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/01/08/joe-biden-sees-lower-net-favorability-rating-than-donald-trump/

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Scenes. About our RV park to save the eyesore on Coyote Street.

‘Proposed RV park up for vote this month’

https://www.theunion.com/news/proposed-rv-park-up-for-vote-this-month/

[scenes]

re: The Tozer 'n Scenes RV Park.

"Spaces will rent for $70/night for a duration of 30 days or less..."

That's always the rub. It's funny how many people I run into who buy an RV/trailer with the intention of traveling on the cheap, and it's not that cheap. At least you can sleep in your own sheets. It sure seems like a better investment than an apartment building.

The main trick will be to provide sewer hookups on Coyote St. We can start by simply dumping effluent into Deer Creek, and then connect to the city sewer system when funding is available. Water is less important as quite a few of the units don't have showers and fluid intake is largely from the local coffee shops and bars.

For marketing purposes, perhaps done through the local Chamber of Commerce, I'd suggest a term similar to 'glamping'. Maybe 'gamping' for 'ghetto camping'.

[Bonkniglio Jr.]

Posted by: Paul Emery | 08 January 2022 at 10:13 AM

Thanks for the entertainment guys (no women bother to come here). I'm off to Grey Lodge to see the Snow Geese-an annual trek.

cheers

Punch is the only guy I know who hangs out at a political/current issues blog hoping to pick up women!

#Sad

[Bill Tozer]

‘re: The Tozer 'n Scenes RV Park’

You are too modest, my fellow traveler. Perhaps The Scenes and Toes RV Park would be fitting. Or, call it Golden Acres, Paradise Gardens, or Eden West.

[Joe Coyote’s Acme Anvil]

“Punch is the only guy I know who hangs out at a political/current issues blog hoping to pick up women!”

Not necessary. That is what his annual family reunion at Grey Lodge is for.

[scenes]

re: BillT@9:38AM

The T&S RV Park. Come for a stint, stay cuz you're skint.

Anyway, back to predictions.

Looking at a big-ass increase in COVID cases (Omicronorama), it'll follow the typical set of standard curves of any large infectious disease. On the inevitable downslope, Biden (and his team of borrowed scientists who keep Lenin's body from dissolving) will get credit for what was really just normal doings of a virus.

[Bill Tozer]

#8......getting closer.

PRODUCER PRICES SOARED BY 9.7% IN DECEMBER, BIGGEST GAIN ON RECORD

CPI can’t be far behind. Kroger is running its stores now at under 1% profit margin after absorbing higher food costs. Actually, it’s higher fuel and energy costs that create higher food costs, but we will pay that no nevermind.

[Bill Tozer]

COVID Prediction, sort of.

They need a fail guy right now over how THEY dropped the ball on the epidemic. Fauci is looking more like Dr. Evil everyday and he is been in government long enough to know how to set up the fail guy and not go down himself.

Prediction: The head of the CDC will be the fall guy. She will get the ax. She has been contradicting Fauci openly. She’s new to how the game is played and making rookie mistakes. Watch for the knives to start coming out.

The wild card is if Fauci “retires” after the midterms.