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22 December 2021

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Bill Tozer

Army scientists develop COVID-19 vaccine protecting against 'known and unknown' variants

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/healthcare/army-scientists-develop-covid-19-vaccine-protecting-against-known-and-unknown-variants

Gregory

Pfizermectin and Merkmectin do look better targeting SARS2 than the original stuff but yes, I'm would have been better than the Nothingmectin most of us have been stuck with.

There is always vit D, zinc and colchicine to help keep Death from saying howdy...

The Estonian Fox

26dec21 update-
George, the only weatherman that I ever heard apologize was Al Sleet, your hippy-dippy weatherman. He apologized to the former residents of Rogers, Illinois, for THEIR sudden heavy rains.

Forecasting is a tough job, especially if it's forecasting the future. For myself, I am generally accurate at the 98% level for forecasting the past. As long as my internet is not down.

The Estonian Fox

Here we go George.
Pr1 = 0.4; Pb1 = 0.6 for the first urn. (Pr1 = Probability of choosing a red ball from the first urn).
Pr2 = [16/(16+Nb)]; Pb2 = [Nb/(16+Nb)] for the 2nd urn. Nb = unknown number of blue balls.

Probability of both red + Prob of both blue = final probability of 0.472, since the balls on both draws must be the same color. So we add the chance of both being red to the chance of both being blue.

Pr1 * Pr2 + Pb1 * Pb2 = 0.472
0.4 * [16/(16+Nb)] + 0.6 * [Nb/(16+Nb)] = 0.472
6.4 + 0.6 Nb = (16+Nb) * 0.472 = 7.552 + 0.472 Nb
0.128 Nb = 7.552 – 6.4

Nb = 1.152/.128 = 9 blue balls – an exact value, and not, for example, 9.023 rounding down to 9.

I took this problem to be a metaphor for the Biden administration compared to the Trump administration. I realized that for Biden, I had selected blue balls, since his own seem to be in a world of hurt right now. Then why didn’t I get the same answer for Trump? Then I realized my quandary – for Trump, the ‘b’ stood for BRASS, not blue. Quandary solved!

George Rebane

Efox 524am - Correctomundo! We even used the same variable names - great minds and all that ;-)

Again, I am grateful for your presence in these pages. It makes me feel good that my techie pieces do have an audience, albeit small.

The Estonian Fox

George,

If there is one part of math that I am uncomfortable with, it's probability. Only "the calculus of boiled okra" ranks below it. Since you think this is a tough problem for actuaries, then they, and other risk evaluators, are in real trouble.

And by the way, the IRS released new Life Expectancy Tables that applies for RMDs in 2022 and beyond. So you don't have to take as high an RMD from your 401k/IRA next year. The IRS basically shifted the divisor by 2 years, since 72 is now the required RMD age. Lizzie Warren kept pushing for a divisor of 1 for any age and amount. Cooler heads prevailed.

George Rebane

Efox 1124am - It is not me, but the actuary wannabes that think these are the tough kind of problems, as reported in the WSJ. That kind of problems in lower division engineering/physics courses would be encountered in the first couple of weeks. But then, to each his own.

The Estonian Fox

So let's see if I have this right - you're saying a freshman engg student could supplant at least one actuary candidate, a recognized STEM vocation. So how many diversity consultants could be replaced by just ONE engg student?

I think Prof Mark Perry counted over 150 diversity positions at the U of Michigan. So maybe 2 engg students could do the job. One to do the actual replacement, and one to hold, fold, wash & dry the crying towels. Sounds about right.

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