The Covid testing fiasco grows

George Rebane

Now there are not enough tests, and the desired rapid tests are really unreliable, and regardless of test results, it is probably safer to let Omicron spread than mess with it, if you’re not in one of those vulnerable classes, and more to come.  All this on top of the simple fact that making decisions on just ‘test positivity’ has always been a non-starter (as I’ve shown in these pages).

Today we read in the 11jan22 WSJ (here) that the popular home rapid tests may be even more unreliable in detecting Delta and other non-Omicron variants of the disease.  And timing is very important in when the test is taken – don’t do it too early, let the symptoms cook for a couple or three days (then what do you do?), and don’t be eager to believe negative test results, and … .

The best sensitivities of ‘properly applied’ tests yield sensitivities of 85-95% - that’s the probability of getting a ‘test positive’ given you have the disease.  This, of course, means that out of every 100 diseased and infectious individuals, the test will come back negative for 5 to 15 of them.  These are then free to party or attend other sardine-packed events or transports.  The specificity of tests are not even mentioned; apparently they are of no concern.  You may recall that a test’s specificity is the probability getting ‘test negative’, given you don’t have the disease.  Test specificities are usually lower than sensitivities.  That means that tests also quarantine a lot more people than actually have the malady.

Then there’s the whole question of managing the spread of Covid.  In ‘Slow the spread?  Speeding it may be safer’ the authors present data and argue that “the Omicron variant is spreading across the globe, but so far the strain appears to be less deadly than its predecessors. That’s good news, but here’s a risk that policy makers in every country should appreciate: Policies designed to slow the spread of Omicron may end up creating a supervariant that is more infectious, more virulent and more resistant to vaccines. That would be a man-made disaster.”

This all has to do with some very sophisticated technical notions of factors affecting dispersion known as ‘antigenic drift’ and ‘antigenic shift’.  Drift is a slow mechanism by which a virus changes, which then allows a host’s immune system to successfully suppress viruses which have only slightly modified themselves from the successfully vaxxed or naturally inhibited variants.  Letting drift occur – i.e. speeding dispersion – has a higher probability of stopping all such variants before they find ways to change even more into versions for which there is no effective vaccine.

Shift then is the process by which the virus can pile up multiple changes to its genome and then emerge as having gone through a “discontinuous quantum leap from one antigen (or set of antigens) to a very different antigen (or set of antigens). New viral strains—such as those that jump from one species to another—tend to emerge from antigenic shift.”

This is bad because “vaccinated and naturally immune people can revamp their immune response to new viral strains created by antigenic drift. Yet social distancing and masking increase the risk of vaccine-resistant strains from antigenic shift by minimizing opportunities for the vaccinated and naturally immune to tailor their immune responses through periodic exposures to incrementally ‘drifted’ variants.”

This reality is complex stuff, and you’ll hear nothing about it from the government’s Faucis and Walenskys.  All that comes down to us are articles of faith about more testing being somehow better than less testing.  But two years into C19, and no one has yet to state a cogent or coherent objective for widespread testing.  Most certainly no reasonable case has been made that testing somehow reduces the virulence, morbidity, or mortality of Covid.  So there you have it.  The testing confusion grows, and the world’s population has abandoned all critical thought and become lemmings led to the altar of testing to worship a rite, the blessings of which no one is aware.  Today we do testing simply for the sake of testing because it makes us feel good.  Sometimes placebos work.

Comments

[Bill Tozer]

It’s times like this when a having a minority card in your back pocket puts ya at the head of the line.

Biden administration guidance prioritizes race in administering COVID drugs

“Guidance issued by the Biden administration states certain individuals may be considered "high risk" and more quickly qualify for monoclonal antibodies and oral antivirals used to treat COVID-19 based on their "race or ethnicity."

In a fact sheet issued for healthcare providers by the Food and Drug Administration, the federal agency approved emergency use authorizations of sotrovimab – a monoclonal antibody proven to be effective against the Omicron variant – only to patients considered "high risk."”

https://sports.yahoo.com/biden-administration-guidance-prioritizes-race-231245493.html

The silver lining is the monoclonal antibodies are slowly being let out of jail and allowed back into polite society. What the CDC and our scientific gurus are saying now would have got them blacklisted, fired, and run out of the lab on a rail IF they said what they are saying now six months ago.

[Scott O]

Our son-in-law was tested last Tuesday (1/4) and was told he'd have the results in 2 or 3 days. As of today he had heard nothing and when calling the toll free number was instructed to press 2 if he hadn't been notified of the results. The line went dead. He then e-mailed for further info but isn't hopeful of anything soon. Free govt testing - you get what you pay for.
Our grand-kiddies are fine, our daughter had mild symptoms and our son-in-law felt as if he had a bad cold. I had what felt like a mild flu with a mild cold and was done with it in about 8 days. The wife suffered worse and felt ill for about 10 days.
Son and daughter-in-law (both vaxxed) were mildly sick (tested positive for covid) as well. Life goes on.

[Bill Tozer]

Quasi on-topic.

‘AP instructs editors: Start downplaying case counts in our stories about COVID’

https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/01/12/ap-instructs-editors-start-downplaying-case-counts-in-our-stories-about-covid-n441163

[scenes]

A not-bad set of essays that I just ran into.

https://eugyppius.substack.com/

The vaccine efficacy stats from the UK in several of the columns are interesting.

[Bill Tozer]

Masks. Cloth Masks. Didn’t we already know this when we debated masks here? My, how time flies.

‘CDC Finally Admits Cloth Masks Were Always Political Theater’

https://thefederalist.com/2022/01/17/cdc-finally-admits-cloth-masks-were-always-political-theater/

Senator Rand Paul poses a rhetorical question.

“Does this mean snot-nosed censors at YouTube will come to my office and kiss my … and admit I was right?”

[scenes]

"Masks. Cloth Masks. Didn’t we already know this when we debated masks here? My, how time flies."

I would suggest using netting. It's much easier to breathe through.

Thinking about masks, testing kits, other-the-counter remedies, etc. Given that COVID has had such a huge effect on people and the economy, you'd think that we'd be buried in government-made N95's, zinc pills, decent test kits. One day delivery from Amazon for a low low (or no) price.

Instead, pretty much crickets.

My general impression is that one of two things are true.

1) There's nothing to be done.
2) Public health officials have no clue what they are doing.

probably it's both.

[Bill Tozer]

WHO: No evidence that healthy children, teens need boosters

https://www.axios.com/who-boosters-no-evidence-children-teens-137cbfa5-c3de-4657-a65b-0575626ef991.html

[Bill Tozer]

Megan Kelly…my new podcast to listen to. Wuhan Lab Leak

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa6-EFoJoV4

[Bill Tozer]

“But hospitalization was 50% lower and risk of death 75% lower among those with natural immunity "independent of age, sex, comorbidities, and vaccine type," the study found.”

‘New research suggests COVID was less deadly than thought in first year of pandemic’
Meta-research pioneer John Ioannidis of Stanford cuts "infection fatality rate" by half for age groups including young people, using international "seroprevalence" review.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/new-research-suggests-covid-was-less-deadly-thought-first-year-pandemic

[Bill Tozer]

Dr. Rebane. Please check your spam folder. Mystery solved. Just the News can no longer be copied and pasted by moi. For those interested......you can go to Just the News and catch latest findings (not peer reviewed).

‘New research suggests COVID was less deadly than thought in first year of pandemic’

Last sentence: “But hospitalization was 50% lower and risk of death 75% lower among those with natural immunity "independent of age, sex, comorbidities, and vaccine type," the study found.”

[Bill Tozer]

The scandalous news started like this:

“It's folly to try to get inside anyone else's head, I know, but I just can't shake this.

Does Justice Gorsuch revel in everyone now knowing that he's keeping her from being able to come to work? Or is he embarrassed? I mean, how do you live with yourself?”

https://mobile.twitter.com/maddow/status/1483521424371421193?

————-
The update:
BREAKING: Gorsuch, Sotomayor Release Joint Statement Calling NPR Report About Mask ‘False’

https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-gorsuch-sotomayor-release-joint-statement-calling-npr-report-about-mask-false

How does Rachel Mancow live with herself?

[George Rebane]

BillT 938am - Rescued and posted two. Thanks.

[Bill Tozer]

CDC Study: Natural Immunity Beats Vax Against Delta Variant

https://www.dailywire.com/news/cdc-study-natural-immunity-beats-vax-against-delta-variant

[Bill Tozer]

CDC report finds natural immunity worked better than vaccine against COVID's delta-variant wave
Study occurred when delta variant was rapidly spreading, immunity among those first vaccinated waining

Just the News