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06 March 2022

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scenes

I was thinking about that some.

One lesson for any billionaire out of this is that you need some serious dosh stored worldwide and a few boltholes. Run afoul of the people who run the money and it's all gone, whether you're a Russian oligarch or a truck driver cutting up rough in Ottawa. It's largely a side effect of computers and modern communications.

A variant I was considering were all the Ukrainian oligarchs, as that country has an economics system that roughly rhymes with Moscow's. Will they come out of this with all their stuff intact?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_oligarchs

Plus there were bound to be people with their feet on both sides.

There has to be Chinese wealthyfolk who are watching this all with interest, whether they fear their own government or the US hegemony's.

If I had that kind of money, one lesson is the lack of value of playing by the 'rules'. There aren't any. Nothing is really private, nothing is really yours, nobody is a neutral arbiter. You might as well go criminal from the get-go.

George Rebane

Good thoughts Mr scenes. Your points about the rich dudes in China, Ukraine, and elsewhere where ultimately envy rules are on the mark IMHO.

Bill Tozer

Russian mafia. Ukraine mafia. Ain’t much difference between the two of you are in one of their clubs in America.

Russian Banks to Switch to Chinese Card System after Visa, Mastercard Suspend Operations in Russia

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/russian-banks-to-switch-to-chinese-card-system-after-visa-mastercard-suspend-operations-in-russia/?

Alpha Bank again, eh.

fish

If I had that kind of money, one lesson is the lack of value of playing by the 'rules'. There aren't any. Nothing is really private, nothing is really yours, nobody is a neutral arbiter. You might as well go criminal from the get-go.



...ding, ding, ding....!

It has certainly worked for President Bad Finger and his ne'er do well spawn.

fish

Putin Orders Companies To Make Debt Payments To Foreign Creditors In Rubles


Troll level: Superior


if he orders them to pay at the prewar rate of exchange....


Troll level: Grand Master



https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-orders-companies-make-debt-payments-foreign-creditors-rubles

scenes

"Ain’t much difference between the two "

Modern times make it a bunch more interesting. Of course, it used to be a lot harder to get that rich, usually involving a natural monopoly in hard goods rather than selling ads in a surveillance-based business. I guess the Russians/Ukrainians got their money from old-fashioned industries.

I was looking up the history of US seizure of German assets in 1941 (which was followed by a reciprocal seizure by the Germans). The money then became permanently seized in 1948. It makes sense if you are in a death struggle with an enemy.

Evidently, now it's sufficient to be a citizen of a country who has invaded another country that we don't defend but are kindly disposed to. A lot lower bar to jump. Between the truck drivers in Canada and Russian oil barons, it's pretty obvious that the banks are directly tied to the State Department and DOJ (or the Canadian version). I guess it's not so different from your ISP or email provider (or social media) throwing their doors open to any government request.

It was always bound to happen, not because they didn't always want that ability, but because it's a lot easier than it used to be.

Truly anonymous payment or communications systems will never be allowed to exist of course. Governments, including the US government, find it more important to spy on you than protecting their citizens from a worldwide threat.

scenes

from the Always At War With Eastasia Department.

"After 192 performances at the Metropolitan Opera, soprano Anna Netrebko will not be performing this year due to her support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Met made several attempts to convince Netrebko, who has made statements critical of the war, to rebuke Putin but failed to persuade the singer."

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/anna-netrebko-out-met-opera-support-putin

scenes

(I'm assuming this is the new Ukraine v. Russia thread).

The politics of the average man.
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1500259902324936706

Barry Pruett

Follow the money.

scenes

BarryP "Follow the money."

Money has it's own mind, it always finds a way.

Stealing a quote I found on twitter.

"The decision to push almost 3 billion people (Russia, India & China) into trading with each other in currencies other than the dollar, will go down as one of the most short-sighted and self destructive policies in US history."

Maybe the truth is that it was always going to happen.

George Rebane

Don't think India will fit well into that triumvirate. Demographically India will the lunches of both China and Russia. And India has never lost much love for China. Russia is waiting for its Muslim invasion. Putin doesn't know it, but his real hope is with Europe, and that is the well he's already shitting into without there even being another. I see Russia and China going at it for trans-Ural Siberia well before the century is out.

scenes

"Don't think India will fit well into that triumvirate."

By signing up with non-dollar based transfer systems (which is all that is said there)? I don't see the harm to them. I suppose that the US could threaten India for interacting with Russia in any way, a sort of corporate takeover of the world.

To what extent is the value of the dollar buoyed up by it's use as a transfer mechanism? How much would it drop as countries realize that access to those systems can be cut off in a moment by violating US foreign policy?

In one sense, it's like the risk you take on by purchasing Microsoft products (particularly in large backends) or Tesla automobiles. Elon Musk is holding strong, but it's just one guy. The US government has a knife switch in it's hand.

That, to me, is the long-term change from this situation, it's just another great power v. smaller power war otherwise. The realization that large systems can be quickly weaponized (it was always true to some extent, but this is much larger) is a lesson that was just taught to the world.

fish

The next shoe to drop....


Pam and Russ Martens: Which banks owe billions on Russian credit default swaps?


https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/03/the-big-question-on-wall-street-is-which-banks-owe-41-billion-on-credit-default-swaps-on-russia/

Scott O

scenes - "By signing up with non-dollar based transfer systems (which is all that is said there)? I don't see the harm to them."
A "non-dollar" system would, per force, mean a Yuan based system. I can't see anything else on the horizon. The Indians absolutely hate (and fear) the Chinese. Big time.
It's not just a monetary system, it's capitulation to their long time enemies.
Ain't happening.
You might investigate the massive investments the various Indian companies have made in former Euro companies against their competitors in China.
China buys Italian motorcycle and car corps and Indians buy English and Eastern Euro car and motorcycle corps. I just can't see the Indians going in with the Chinese unless they have no choice.
The Chinese are also heavily tied to US currency backed financial sources. If and when they try to bring down the US dollar as a standard currency, their own country will take a big hit.
Of course in China they just shoot protestors dead.
So there's that.

scenes

"A "non-dollar" system would, per force, mean a Yuan based system. I can't see anything else on the horizon. The Indians absolutely hate (and fear) the Chinese. Big time."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-russia-china-explore-alternative-to-swift-payment-mechanism/articleshow/72048472.cms

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/sbi-becomes-first-bank-to-link-up-with-chinas-bank-751517.html

https://www.unionpayintl.com/en/mediaCenter/newsCenter/companyNews/4850.shtml

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-russia-china-explore-alternative-to-swift-payment-mechanism/articleshow/72048472.cms

https://www.reuters.com/article/npci-chinaunionpay-pact/national-payments-corp-of-india-to-tie-up-with-china-unionpay-idINKBN0O60LM20150521


I would guess that India develops it's own, but don't know.

Since the West weaponized electronic funds transfer, any large country that hasn't developed or looked into alternatives is foolish.

" I just can't see the Indians going in with the Chinese unless they have no choice."

Why can't they use both systems?

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