The Ukraine War – 19mar22

George Rebane

The ongoing Ukraine war is a complex affair with many dynamic factors that influence events and the state (attitudes/assessments) of the involved parties.  These pages are home to a lively discussion and debate about the goings on in Ukraine and their worldwide impact.  I’ve made an attempt to simplify and explicate my take on how the whole mish-mash comes together from what is known, claimed, and propagandized today.  This assessment is reduced into an influence factors diagram shown below.

To understand the above IFD, I recommend a quick read of one or more tutorial pieces I posted some years ago (here, here, and here).  The main thing to recall in looking at how the factors relate is that the connecting lines show the direction of influence by their arrowheads, and the plus (+) sign means that the influencer and influenced are in sync (i.e. as one goes up/down, so does the other), while the minus (-) sign means that they are out of sync (i.e. as one goes up/down, the other goes down/up).  The factors labeled L{ } are likelihoods of the events in the curly brackets coming to pass.

IFDs usually contain ‘virtuous’ and ‘vicious’ cycles.  A cycle is made by any directed path that returns to its selected point of origin.  A cycle is usually taken as virtuous if the cycled feedback seeks to stabilize (self-correct) the involved factors, and is usually understood as vicious if the feedback causes a runaway state in one or more of involved factors.  An easy way to identify such cycles is by counting the number of minus (-) signs in the cycle.  Virtuous cycles have an odd number of minuses, while vicious cycles tally an even number of minuses.  In the above IFD trace out some cycles starting with ‘US Display of Strength’.

Before you dismiss the IFD as just some idle technical doodling, you might consider that this tool (in its various formats) is used by the big kids as a starting point to discuss and communicate ALL complex processes about which critical decisions must be taken, and most certainly when it is required to formally ‘game the process’ using one of several simulation development environments – pricey software systems used in industry, by the military, and in statecraft.  The IFD lets you see the big picture in its entirety and then drill down to whatever level of detail is required.  It is the epitome graphic for communication in multi-party discussions of complex affairs.  (BTW, people who can generate clear, complete, and concise IFDs for complex issues get paid big bucks.)

Comments

[Gregory]

Another couple of possibilities...

US President senility +/-
vs Russian President.. who would flinch?

Ukraine... a green comedian playing at President on a world stage for the first time
vs Russian President... the only one who won't flinch?

[Bill Tozer]

Biden Still Doesn’t Get Deterrence

Column: And has no endgame for the war in Ukraine.

https://freebeacon.com/national-security/biden-still-doesnt-get-deterrence/

[scenes]

re: BillT@10:01AM

From the article: "Putin has no regard for his citizens’ well-being. He is concerned only with his own."

That seems like a gross overstatement. Op-eds tend to slip into saying the meanest things they can for that little extra pizzazz.

I'd give high odds that Putin is more patriotic than any member of the US political elite, but that can lead you to some odd places.

My guess is that the Russians are wingin' it. Plans never survive contact with the enemy and all that.

You do have to wonder about a strategic negotiation that begins, in the US case, with putting all your cards on the table at once. At this point, the administration can (pretty much) either back off or go to DEFCON 1. No more cards to play.

I can't say that it breaks my heart to see the world move to more distinct pieces again. Globalization/centralization always seems to lead down the path of single points of failure, due to either profit motive or the sheer joy of control.

[scenes]

also: "And has no endgame for the war in Ukraine."

I do have to ask (probably boringly so) why the US needs an endgame, unless it's just accepted that this always was a showdown with Russia.

It's kind of a coy way to say that Ukraine was never really an independent state, but was a forward base of the US empire. Sometimes being a chess piece kind of sucks for the lower-valued ones.

[scenes]

also also: (sorry to bang on about this) a quick googling tells me that Matthew Continetti (the author) is Bill Kristol's son in law.

[fish]

Biden Reverses Campaign Pledge, Opens Door for Nuclear Strike as a Deterrent

During the 2020 campaign Mr. Biden promised to work toward a policy in which the sole purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal would be to deter or respond to an enemy nuclear attack.

So Punchy I guess Biden was lying when he said this on the campaign trail. In your view is it acceptable for politicians to lie to the voters?

Heres a link....check it out. https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-sticks-with-longstanding-u-s-policy-on-use-of-nuclear-weapons-amid-pressure-from-allies-11648176849

All for now.

[fish]

Biden Reverses Campaign Pledge, Opens Door for Nuclear Strike as a Deterrent

During the 2020 campaign Mr. Biden promised to work toward a policy in which the sole purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal would be to deter or respond to an enemy nuclear attack.

So Punchy I guess Biden was lying when he said this on the campaign trail. In your view is it acceptable for politicians to lie to the voters?

Heres a link....check it out. https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-sticks-with-longstanding-u-s-policy-on-use-of-nuclear-weapons-amid-pressure-from-allies-11648176849

All for now.

[fish]

Biden Reverses Campaign Pledge, Opens Door for Nuclear Strike as a Deterrent

During the 2020 campaign Mr. Biden promised to work toward a policy in which the sole purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal would be to deter or respond to an enemy nuclear attack.

So Punchy I guess Biden was lying when he said this on the campaign trail. In your view is it acceptable for politicians to lie to the voters?

Heres a link....check it out. https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-sticks-with-longstanding-u-s-policy-on-use-of-nuclear-weapons-amid-pressure-from-allies-11648176849

All for now.

[Don Bessee]

Now we know why vlad failed to take out the strategic targets we would take out day 1. -

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-assesses-60-failure-223714056.html

;-)

[Don Bessee]

Creepy grampa joe is stumbling and may escalate the situation with his brain farts -

Joe Biden Tells U.S. Troops What They Will See in Ukraine ‘When You’re There’

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/03/25/joe-biden-tells-troops-what-they-will-see-in-ukraine-20378513/

;-)

[scenes]

re: DonB@12:48PM

https://defencyclopedia.com/2017/04/22/analysis-the-us-navys-59-tomahawk-missile-barrage-on-a-syrian-airbase/

"Secondly, soon after the strike was carried out, the US Military was quick to claim that all 59 Tomahawks hit their targets accurately. This is however completely incorrect as no cruise missile has a 100% success rate. For this particular strike, Russia claims that only 23 Tomahawks hit the base and the rest missed or never made it to the target. This adds up to a success rate of 38%, which is again a ridiculous claim."

Good thing the US was there to attack a sovereign country, somebody has to do it.

Everything is true, nothing is true.

Frankly, I don't know why I even look on the internet for information.

[Paul Emery]

fish

It you'd like me to respond address your request to Paul, Psul Emery or Emery.

[scenes]

Psul Emery.

Just what does Biden mean by this? It's easy to jump to conclusions.

(yes, you can 'do' twitter, just click on the link).

https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1507386975753494533

[fish]

Psul,

What on earth makes you think I want you to respond....?

[Paul Emery]

The question was "In your view is it acceptable for politicians to lie to the voters?"
Is that not asking for a response? I will respond if you address your request to Paul, Paul Emery or Emery.

[fish]

Posted by: Psul Emery | 25 March 2022 at 03:13 PM

Ahhh......Psul.....you misunderstand. Your writing, questions, and opinions are so rote, so predictable that you’re unnecessary.

To save you the time....and spare you further embarrassment.....I’m happy to post as you from this point forward. Go ahead and take a load off buddy.

”So you think it’s okay that Trump....etc., etc., etc......”

[scenes]

" In your view should Hunter Biden continue to trade on the Biden name by sitting on the boards of foreign companies? Would you consider this evidence of influence peddling?"

Me so clever thinks Psul. Me frame question in terms of somethin' Trump chillen done.
-----

Generally I'd say that it's hard to avoid actively managed family businesses, so let's set that one aside.

Should children of prominent politicians get *paid* board positions. Probably not.

The answer is simple. Make it public as all get out. The real problem isn't that Hunter Biden was out selling access to his father while snorting coke off the rear ends of whores, it's that the story was buried by MSM.

Psul, you seem to miss the point.

[Don Bessee]

Saw this one coming as the old school long toiling feminists started crying foul for women not womxn -

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2022/03/25/transgender-sports-debate-is-impacting-2022-election/

;-)

[Paul Emery]

I did not write the 4:10 post. Somebody is trying to use my name. George, can you check the email as to who did this and do something about it?

[fish]

Posted by: Paul Emery | 25 March 2022 at 06:41 PM

Think hard Clouseau…..who volunteered to write your posts for you??

C’mon….noodle it through…..you can do it!

[fish]

Somebody is trying to use my name.

Use your name?? I thought you were Paul, Paul Emery, or just Emery?

Who is this Psul guy?

…..sounds like a troublemaker to me!!

[George Rebane]

Administrivia - I deleted the 410pm comment from a 'Psul Emery'; someone here is playing games with PaulE. The email and IP address of the perp was [email protected] 99.18.104.99

[Bill Tozer]

If one nuclear bomb could save just one life, it would be worth it.

https://twitter.com/Ccampbellbased/status/1506636920348188676

[scenes]

I just love this kind of thing. Everything is true, nothing is true.

"The Russian government held a press conference Thursday claiming that Hunter Biden helped finance a US military 'bioweapons' research program in Ukraine
However the allegations were branded a brazen propaganda ploy to justify president Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and sow discord in the US
But emails and correspondence obtained by DailyMail.com from Hunter's abandoned laptop show the claims may well be true"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10652127/Hunter-Biden-helped-secure-millions-funding-military-biotech-research-program-Ukraine.html

It's probably just safe to assume that everything you hear from a government (or it's partners, like MSM or social media generally) is probably false. Of course, since Russian fibs have mostly been cut off by censorship, we are left with Western government fibs.

[fish]

A whole staff devoted to explaining what Joey Fingers didn’t say….

Biden Says "Butcher" Putin "Cannot Remain In Power" In Call For Regime Change In Russia

Update(1435ET): Quite awkwardly and bizarrely, and a mere minutes after multiple headlines hit which emphasized that Biden just called for regime change in Russia with the words "this man cannot remain in power" in reference to Putin, the White House is seeking to clarify that supposedly it was "not" a call for regime change:

White House official explains what Biden actually tried to say: “The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region. He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-president-biden-delivers-remarks-us-efforts-support-ukraine

[Paul Emery]

I'd rather have a President that says "this man cannot remain in power" that than one that calls him a genius and brilliant.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-ukraine-graham/index.html

[Don Bessee]

The ponytail of ignorance just fell for clean up on aisle 46 as the WH immediately said that's not what he meant - ROFLOL

It appeared to be the first time Biden has explicitly called for Putin’s removal and would mark a sharp contrast from prior statements from the White House, which have emphasized that regime change in Russia is not the policy of the United States.

Shortly after Biden's address however, the White House denied that Biden was calling for regime change.

"The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region. He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change," a White House official told Fox News Digital shortly after the speech concluded.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-says-putin-cannot-remain-in-power

;-)

[Paul Emery]

There is no doubt that's what Trump said. He could have called him an evil genius but he didn't. He later elaborated and called him "brilliant". Thank goodness we have Biden as President rather than Trump who was an embarrassmentande has no control over what comes out of his mouth.

[Bill Tozer]

Don Bessee @
The ponytail of ignorance Psul just fell for clean up on aisle 46 as the WH immediately said that's not what he meant - ROFLOL

[email protected]:

‘Media works overtime to clean up Joe Biden’s word salads’

https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/media-works-overtime-to-clean-up-joe-bidens-word-salads/
———————————
Inside the Squad’s ‘Putin problem’

https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/inside-the-squads-putin-problem/

[George Rebane]

PaulE 152pm - Paul, are there many others like you who believe that Biden has any control over what comes out of his mouth?

[Paul Emery]

George

That doesn't matter as much as what comes out of Trumps or Bidens mouth. Has Biden said anything that comes close to the often quoted Trump when he asked the question about possibly use of atomic bombs to neutralize hurricanes or injecting disenfectants to cure covid. Those are just a couple examples of Trumps suggestions and opinions.

Here's trumps direct quotes

"And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way, and I think you said you're going to test that too. It sounds interesting…

And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning. Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it would be interesting to check that. So, that, you're going to have to use medical doctors with. But it sounds—it sounds interesting to me."

https://reason.com/2020/04/24/its-not-fake-news-trump-did-actually-suggest-that-injecting-bleach-could-be-a-cure-for-covid-19/

[Don Bessee]

It seems to matter to the WH staff who has to play last man in the elephant parade cleaning up his shit -

White House walks back multiple Biden remarks during Europe trip on Putin, chemical weapons, troops

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/white-house-walks-back-multiple-203212448.html

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Hurricanes and COVID-19.

Psul, I believe you have drifted off the topic of The Ukraine War. It don’t matter what Biden says cause bumble brain Biden’s bumbled brain is already baked into the cake. ‘Hey Fatso, I challenge you to a push-up contest, you and that dog faced pony soldier Democrat chick over there.

This is the only thing that matters…..besides Biden’s historic withdrawal from Afghanistan that will always be remembered by all for decades to come as The Bay of Pigs on steroids, is this:

See Sandbox

[scenes]

You know, I was thinking about this very thing a couple of days ago.

"Video of the Russian cruise missile strike that hit a fuel depot in Lviv today.
The massive explosion sent a shockwave across the city.
Russia has been striking fuel depots in several cities in recent days.
They hit fuel depots in an attempt to stop Ukrainian troop movements."
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1507847509011582983

A lot smarter people than moi do this sort of planning, but you can argue that 100% of your first strike is against fuel and fuel delivery systems (all nicely pre-targeted of course). It interested me enough to grind through how much of the opponents' fleets are diesel, gasoline, less picky (gas turbines). Keep smacking on fuel until everything stops.

[Don Bessee]

The shadow of 0's weakness is hanging over creepy grampa joe -

Putin banked on Obama's appeasement to continue under Biden, sparking Russo-Ukranian war: expert

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-banked-obama-apos-appeasement-060702869.html

;-)

[Don Bessee]

So the krauts veto cutting off vlads coal but but but what about all that American coal just sitting there looking for a home? -

EU's biggest economy Germany blocked Russian coal ban, sources say

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/finance/news/eus-biggest-economy-germany-blocked-132327431.html

;-)

[scenes]

Just to show how things go down in wars in Eastern Europe. (to keep the actors straight. Ukrainians blue or yellow arm bands, Russians are white, black, some other colors I forget). Looks bona fide but you never know.

https://t.me/warleaks11/3836 (nsfw)

from

https://t.me/s/warleaks11

[scenes]

better video (nsfw) https://files.catbox.moe/wcdy0g.mp4

with subtitles. Maybe with the last kneecapping left out. Lots of words on the internet about how it was Russian artillerymen (are they called Redlegs there?), but probably people inventing a story.

My own take is that that whole swathe of Europe is filled with insane people (apologies George) and our idiot President and a lot of Republicans want to get me involved with their problems.

The discussion at home this morning. Was Biden coached to push for regime change in Russia by the War Party? or is he just that stupid in terms of the niceties of being head of state? The man is downright dangerous in that job, but it's impossible to tell what is really happening.

[Bill Tozer]

And the hits just keep on coming

‘Chatter Of 25th Amendment Erupts After Biden Ramps Up Escalation Talk On Russia, White House Bats Cleanup’

https://www.dailywire.com/news/chatter-of-25th-amendment-erupts-after-biden-ramps-up-escalation-talk-on-russia-white-house-bats-cleanup

[scenes]

"Biden's Reckless Words Underscore the Dangers of the U.S.'s Use of Ukraine As a Proxy War
As grave of a threat as deliberate war is, unintended escalation from miscommunication and misperception can be as bad. Biden is the perfect vessel for such risks."

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/bidens-reckless-words-underscore?s=w

[George Rebane]

Biden has definitely become a dangerous loose cannon in America's foreign affairs. Where Trump ran a tight ship, Bumblebrain invites every two-bit autocrat in the world to make hay against the US while he's in the WH. We note with unsurprising interest that our leftwing readers are not making a peep about the conduct of President Loose Lips.

[scenes]

"Where Trump ran a tight ship, "

Given that there was a bureaucratic coup started on Day 1, it's hard to say just how the ship was run. But then, it doesn't really matter.

We're in more dangerous days than before, the problem shifted from government overreach and tightening the border to a never-ending plague run by scammers, the grooming of children by pervs, nuclear war, and Bidenflation (soon to be HyperBidenflation).

Trump is out of the picture for now and the current administration is undeniably a shitty one. Things are sketchy in a way they never were in the prior four years, but then they're sketchy in a way they never were in the prior fourty.

My guess is that the more vocal variety of Democrat is cool with any 'Biden' (ie. some mafia or the other in the administration) foreign policy misstep as long as it doesn't interfere with the prime directive of socially reinventing the US. The past is bad and the future is an ideal that calls for any rewrite of history, destruction of culture, or mistreatment of children to achieve.

Other than that, it's all fine.

[Bill Tozer]

What we have learned so far.
1) Biden has unequivocally repeated that sanctions are not a deterrent. Sanctions are for pain only, not a deterrent. Ok, fine. Then why all this talk about sanctions? Above my pay grade for sure. Is pain a deterrent? Well, keeps me from putting my hand on the pretty blue flame on the stovetop burner, but what do I know.

2)…..

CHAOS IN THE WHITE HOUSE

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/03/chaos-in-the-white-house.php

[Paul Emery]

George

Hmmm Did you express any concerns about Bush describing "shock and awe" as to what he intended to impose on the sovereign State if Iraq which included removing saddam hussein from power through military invasion. Here's a Bush quote.

“[Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein is a serious threat,” Bush told congressional leaders. “He is a significant problem. And it’s something that this country must deal with.”

[scenes]

re: Psul Emery@12:16PM

Ya know, I'll take a shot at that.

1) Saddam Hussein didn't have 10,000 nuclear weapons. Whether it's Iraq or Panama, the War Party can do as they like with small countries.
2) Nobody gives a flying fuck what George Bush did or thought at this point.

The Bush family and Joe Biden represent the same ruling party. The one that you run cover for. Give me a break.

Stick with the subject at hand you silly old git. President Potato is edging us ever closer to the soup, it's obvious as all get-out. Your perpetual simping for one political party over another is grotesque.

[Paul Emery]

So scenes I am assuming you did not support the war in Iraq and our invasion of a sovereign country. The rest of the RR's and our host have alsays supported that action

[Bill Tozer]

Psul, your man Biden advocated for splitting the sovereign country of Iraq into three countries. Three countries. Three separate countries out of the sovereign country of Iraq. What a foreign policy idiot. Guess you are ok with Saddam gassing those Kurds, eh? Not too much stink was created when Saddam invaded Iran and gassed them too.

Three countries out of one, each fighting for the oil fields. Too funny.

[scenes]

Psul Emery: "So scenes I am assuming you did not support the war in Iraq and our invasion of a sovereign country."

What is the point of a thing like that? It strikes me as a combination of two motivating forces. 1) A US empire-building class that liked the idea of a US-controlled Middle East and 2) undue influence (as usual) by Israel on US foreign affairs. WMDs were a BS excuse failing evidence of a truly sophisticated biological weapons program or a far-along nuclear effort. The products of a German-built chemical program aren't enough to get upset about and too easy to replicate elsewhere. The rest of the Iraqi kit was either French (nuke plant) or Soviet (army and air force hardware), although the US Left seems to think they were stocked up with US gear.

So Psul, why are you physically incapable of talking about current affairs?

[scenes]

"Three countries out of one, each fighting for the oil fields. Too funny."

If a person were playing God, it's hard to say how to cut those places up. Pieces of Ottoman provinces, bits and pieces of cultures going back to the beginning of time, Persians are their own thing, Arab tribesmen overrunning the civilized world and temporarily creating something amazing, the classical world getting shoved into the ocean followed by the Christian world, dribs and drabs of 100 other languages and people.

Does the modern concept of a 'nation' even make sense there? (you can ask the same thing about a bunch of sub-Saharan Africa).

Maybe the thing to do is to give everyone a stick, some women, and a bag of pemmican and see where the borders end up falling. Where the boundaries fall should be obvious because no one lives there anymore.

In the meantime, just stay out of it. It's not worth the life of a single Pomeranian Grenadier and you'll always get your pocket picked.

[Barry Pruett]

No. We shouldn’t support the invasion of any country. We also should not interfere in other nations affairs.

[Bill Tozer]

Scenes @ 12:57 pm

“So Psul, why are you physically incapable of talking about current affairs?”

Another smart move there Scenes. Psul vowed to not answer that question because he was addressed as Psul. Excellent. Well played, sir. Free at last, free at last.

[Bill Tozer]

‘Uranium, oil and technology: How Russia got stronger as Bidens and Clintons got richer’
In the years before Moscow invaded Ukraine, Democrats enriched themselves politically and personally from oligarchs and businesses in the region while empowering Vladimir Putin with energy and technology deals.

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/thururanium-oil-and-technology-how-russia-got-stronger

And yet, Ukraine remains the largest and poorest country in Europe.

[Don Bessee]

Funny how many folks have no memory of the assurances that were made in writing to get them to give up a massive stockpile of nukes. Not worth the paper its written on -

Zelenskyy representative blames U.S., other Budapest Memorandum signatories for Ukraine's war
Zelenskyy's Constitutional Court representative said the failure to protect Ukraine will have lasting consequences.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-representative-blames-budapest-memorandum-signatories-for-ukraines-war

;-)

[Don Bessee]

Does he even remember what he said? -

Biden claims he wasn't calling for regime change in Russia
President Biden on Sunday said he was not calling for regime change in Russia.

"Mr. President, were you calling for regime change?" a reporter asked in a shouted question, with Biden flatly responding "no."

The answer comes after Biden spawned controversy earlier in the weekend when he said that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power."

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/ukraine-russia-live-updates-03-27-2022

;-)

[scenes]

Barry Pruett: "No. We shouldn’t support the invasion of any country. We also should not interfere in other nations affairs."

Just to probe around that a bit (a real question, not one of those Psul Emery questions), should the US have bases in foreign countries? have mutual defense pacts with anybody?

[fish]

Posted by: Don Bessee | 27 March 2022 at 04:40 PM

Remember though Don.....Joey Fingers is a notorious liar....perhaps the biggest liar ever in the history of the US government.

Probably why Psul voted for him.

[Don Bessee]

Ya sure stick to your global warming luddite plans that hurt the poorest amongst us while the EU shivers and vlad rakes in billions -

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/03/27/mcconnell-manchin-press-federal-regulators-to-lift-climate-change-restrictions-on-gas-pipelines/

;-)