The Great Replacement (update 21may22)

George Rebane

All socio-economic problems depend on their numbers, not understanding these replaces reasonable discussion with emoting.

The ‘great replacement conspiracy’ is the latest kerfuffle to rise to national prominence.  The Left is accusing the Right of fostering this theory of dark-skinned immigrants and illegal aliens being welcomed into America to outvote and outbreed the European-descended whites.  (more here, here, here, here)  History tells us that such replacement concerns first started in France long ago, and in the US ascendant Democrats have crowed for years, and continue to do so today, that the Republicans are being replaced as their party shrinks.  But no matter where it started, the point I want to develop is that in our innumerate nation, almost everyone today is ignorant of what replacement means and really is.  And the evil party is using this ignorance to continue to divide us.  So let’s clear up some cobwebs in order to correctly assess what all the fuss is about.

The general notion of replacement requires first and foremost the existence of a defined ‘container’, be it a region of square miles full of people, a jug that can hold fluids, or a bowl containing different colored marbles.  Given the container, we now have to consider two distinct cases.  Case1 in which the container has a not-to-exceed carrying capacity, and Case2 in which the container’s carrying capacity is not limited.

Case1.  Suppose we have a small bowl that can hold five marbles, and to start, it contains three Amarbles and two Bmarbles.  We all understand that if Bmarbles are reduced to one by adding one Amarble or one Cmarble, that Bmarbles are being replaced both in their absolute number and in their share of the bowl’s contents (going from 40% to 20%), now leaving the A, B, C marble count at 3, 1, 1 respectively.  No one should have a problem understanding this kind of replacement.

But is it possible for replacement to occur if a categorical population (e.g. Bmarbles) remains unchanged or even increases?  Well yes, this gives us Case2 where we suppose Amarbles increase by two to five, Cmarbles double to two, and Bmarbles remain unchanged at one.  Now the share of Bmarbles has dropped from 20% to 1/8 or 12.5%.  The Bmarble share has definitely been replaced by the greater shares of Amarbles and Cmarbles.

The more interesting Case2 scenario is when the number of all three kinds of marbles increases over time.  Let’s suppose that Amarbles increase at the rate of 4/year, Bmarbles at 1/year, and Cmarbles at 3/year.  If at the beginning of the year we had A, B, C marbles numbering 3, 1, 1 respectively, then at the end of the year they would number 7, 2, 4.  So focusing on Bmarbles, we see their number double, but their share drop from 20% to about 15%.  Again, Bmarbles had 5% of their share replaced by the population increase which was taken up by the shares of Amarbles and Cmarbles.  So it’s easy to see that replacement can take place in populations that also increase over time, but only at a rates lower than that of the other population cohorts.

Let’s now go from marbles to people occupying a landmass that has no clearly set capacity.  Say, there are 100 million total people now divided into cohorts of Apeople, Bpeople, and Cpeople in shares 20%, 50%, and 30% respectively.  (Time to fasten seatbelts for the arithmetically challenged.)  Population will be affected by birth rates, net immigration, and death rates.  From numerous demographic studies over the years we know that the population of a cohort will be stable or remain unchanged when its fecund women give birth to 2.1 offspring in their lifetime - the so-called replacement rate.  For our purposes, we’ll assume that women are fecund in their 20 to 40 year age range, or about 17% of the population (based on 2020 US demographics).

The mean annual birth rate per woman over her 20-year fecundity is her mean number of offspring divided by 20.  For a stable population that rate is 2.1/20 = 0.105 births per year per woman.  Now the astute reader will also recognize this as the nominal annual death rate across all ages.  To illustrate with some numbers for our 100 million population, we will have 17 million fecund women producing 17,000,000*0.105 = 1,785,000 babies per year.  And this is the same number of people who die each year giving the population birth rate and death rate equaling 1,785,000/100,000,000 = 0.0179 per person in the population.  With this little piece of arithmetic under our belts, let’s now take a more detailed look at our population scenario.

Suppose, in our population the birthrates for fecund women in the A, B, and C people are 2.5, 1.5, 3.0 offspring per fecund woman.  Doing the same calculations now for population cohorts of Apeople = 20 million, Bpeople = 50 million, Cpeople = 30 million each having 17% fecundity in their populations of 3.4e6, 8.5e6, 5.1e6 respectively.  (To save space and provide clarity, from here on I’ll use the compact exponential notation for numbers where 3,400,000 = 3.4*10^6 = 3.4e6, and 0.0179 = 1.79*10^-2 = 1.79e-2.  This is what scientists and engineers use to express both big and small numbers and enable rapid mental math to do simple calculations.)

So now, the birth rates for each cohort are Arate = 2.5/20 = 0.125/year, and similarly Brate = 0.075/year, Crate = 0.150/year.  Going through the same math, we get the annual number of births of Ababies = 3.4e6*0.125 = 425,000, and similarly Bbabies = 638,000, Cbabies = 765,000.  Deaths for each cohort are Adeaths = 20e6*0.0179 = 357,000, and similarly Bdeaths = 893,000, Cdeaths = 536,000.  This yields a net population change for each cohort of Achange = 425e3 – 358e3 = 67,000, and similarly Bchange = -257,000, Cchange = 228,000.

Adding these net changes to the initial population numbers, we get the new cohort populations after one year as Apop = 20e6 + 67,000 = 20,067,000, and similarly Bpop = 49,743,000, Cpop = 30,228,000, giving the new one-year total population of 100,038,000.  The new population shares are then Ashare = 20,067,000/100,038,000 = 20.06%, and similarly Bshare = 49.72%, Cshare = 30.22%.  So it is clear that 0.28% of the B cohort’s population share was replaced by the increased shares of the A and C cohorts.  This, of course was due to the drastically low fecundity rate of the B cohort at 1.5, or 0.6 below replacement rate, while the other two cohorts’ rates were above the 2.1 replacement rates.  BTW, these rates are pretty close to some actual fecundity rates, especially the B rate approximating the Anglo rates for the EU and US.

To see the longer term impact of the above scenario, we must now replicate all that math for the next year, starting with the new population shares.  And this iteration can be carried out for longer time horizons of say 25 or more years to see the significance of how different population cohorts replace one another over time.

What we’ve ignored so far is net immigration that varies over the population cohorts.  As an example, say the net immigration rate of 3% people in the first year is concentrated in cohort C.  This gives that cohort an added 900,000 starting annual population increase that significantly impacts its population share, and hence its contribution to replacing other population cohorts.  I developed a spreadsheet model of all this to generate the population share chart shown below which clearly illustrates the replacement phenomenon.

Over a 25-year period, using the above parameters, the population increased by 41.3%.  Were this increase applied equally to all starting cohorts, then the A, B, C populations would grow to 28,270,000, 70,675,000, 42,405,000 respectively.  However, after 25 years the A, B, C cohort populations shares were 15.4%, 31.1%, 53.5% respectively yielding populations of 21,771,202, 44,000,314, 75,577,673.   This shows that cohort C’s excess population growth of 33,172,673 replaced 6,598,798 and 26,674,686 of cohorts A and B respectively.

Coming back to today’s politics, the Great Replacement, bragged about by Democrats and which outrages Republicans, is a real concern to the extent that our open border invites people by the millions to enter illegally, gain citizenship, and overwhelmingly vote for the party that facilitated their entry and subsequent amnesty.  Denying that this is happening is yet one more Big Lie from the evil anti-American party.

[21may22 update]  “Watch out for odious theory”  The letter of a Lee Freidenfelt in the 21may22 Union again underlines how sadly deficient is the progressive mind.  S/he, like all leftists, doesn’t understand the cultural replacement process in a society, and thinks that those who do and therefore lament the illegal and rapid dimensions of replacement are ‘peddling incredibly dangerous ideas’, and, of course, should be censored in our newspaper.  Like so many of his unfortunate ilk, Freidenfelt thinks that believing in the so-called Great Replacement Theory is racist and fomented so that “every time minority groups seek representation in government to address their issues”, we have “a reactionary backlash from the hegemonic powers that drape themselves in the flag with a romanticized perspective of American/German/Italian values of the old ways.”   Those who pay attention know that 'replacement backlash' has nothing to do with legitimate citizen minority groups voting for their preferred representatives.  The country’s Freidenfelts draw a strong causal connection from such “incredibly dangerous” replacement reports (like mine) to “what happened recently in Buffalo, New York, and countless other racially motivated hate crimes in our country.”

Comments

[Bill Tozer]

THE REPLACEMENTS

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/05/the-replacements.php
———————-
Asiatic.? That’s what my Dad called his fellow submariners who went off the res after the war. Asiatic. Shell shock, before PTSD. One night he said he was driving and the whole freeway suddenly became stopped. It was a couple of his buddies from the submarine standing out there with candles in their hands stopping all the cars and asking if the motorists they knew where girl with the wooden nickel was. They went Asiatic. Haven’t heard that term in 50 years. Anyway…..

UPDATES: MUSK FOR THE WIN, AND THE PROGRESSIVE ROOTS OF “REPLACEMENT THEORY”

• The indispensable Phil Magness points out that “replacement theory” was first articulated by the original Progressives 100 years ago, in particular the sociologist E.A Ross in 1901 lecture:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/05/updates-musk-for-the-win-and-the-progressive-roots-of-replacement-theory.php

[scenes]

https://anncoulter.com/2022/05/18/here-are-the-nutcases-who-believe-in-replacementx/

I think she quotes that Supreme Grotesque Grifter himself, Tim Wise:

"We just have to be patient.
“And wait for you to pass into that good night…
“Do you hear it?
“The sound of your empire dying? Your nation, as you knew it, ending, permanently?
“Because I do, and the sound of its demise is beautiful.”

-- Tim Wise

[Paul Emery]

George

How do you explain Tucker Carlson and Fox news bring up the Replacement Theory over 400 times?

"The absence of coverage of the motive was revealing, given Fox News’s most popular host, Tucker Carlson, has pushed the concept of replacement theory in more than 400 of his shows – and has arguably done more than anyone in the US to popularize the racist conspiracy."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/17/buffalo-shooting-fox-news-tucker-carlson-great-replacement-theory

[Gregory]

Punch... could you give us a link to an example? The link you gave doesn't actually show how bad the Carlson rhetoric is.

[Gregory]

Is it worse than the old joke... calling illegal aliens "undocumented Democrats"?

If it wasn't true it would not have been funny.

[Paul Emery]

It illustrates the fact that it was a major topic on Fox News, particularly Tucker's show.

Just watch this video for lots of examples Gregory

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tucker-carlson-video-great-replacement-theory-b2080264.html

[Scott O]

Paul - it's not a 'theory' it's a fact. Here's Tucker's show from a couple of days ago with clips from Dems bragging about the fact. Watch all of it or start at approx 7 min mark for the clips.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EzgfBMVwFQ
There is abundant evidence on the internet of leftists and Dems happily bragging about the exact thing that they then deny when a conservative exposes it.
This is like the folks calling out the teaching of CRT.
It doesn't happen, but don't you dare be against it being taught.

[George Rebane]

PaulE 1144am - as ScottO points out, replacement has been advertised/celebrated by Dems for years, and has been intensifying over the last decade. The phenomenon is well documented by looking at the data on the same factors I spelled out and calculated in my above dissertation. I'm surprised that Carlson referenced this invasion only 400 times, since the illegal influx is the most impactful thing going on domestically. Check out the glee with which Bumblebrain recently announced that the country's Anglo share had dropped below 50%. Rapid uninvited cultural changes in a society never turn out well.

[Paul Emery]

George

Tucker didn't just reference it he promoted it. Just a casual listen shows that. He used it a a scare tactic to arouse opposition and it certainly did. The mass killings in Buffalo are a tragic example.

[scenes]

Psul...just how many Tucker episodes have you actually watched? An estimate would be sufficient.

[George Rebane]

PaulE 115pm - You have misunderstood Tucker's commentaries. Nowhere has he "promoted" replacement for the US. All he has done is to continuously point out that our southern border is open and that we are being invaded by illegal aliens about which the federal govt refuses to do anything. Worse than that, the feds deny that we have a border crisis - I cite the idiot Sec Homeland Security Mayorkas. Your lamestream outlets have refused to cover this ongoing national tragedy. If you want to find a cause for frustration, look there because the people know what's going on.

[scenes]

Just to show where Democrats are coming from, here's a longer Tim Wise quote:

" And I do not mean by that your physical destruction. We don’t play those games. We’re not into the whole “Second Amendment remedies, militia, armed resistance” bullshit that your side fetishizes, cuz, see, we don’t have to be. We don’t need guns.

We just have to be patient.

And wait for your hearts to stop beating.

Do you hear it?

The sound of your empire dying? Your nation, as you knew it, ending, permanently?

Because I do, and the sound of its demise is beautiful.

So know this.

If you thought this election was payback for 2008, remember…

Payback, thy name is…

Temporary."

[scenes]

A Tim Wise editorial from a few years back that includes the above quote. When you hear Psul bitch about Trump, this is the kind of vitriol that underlies it. These people are not your friends.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2010/11/3/916577/-

[Scott O]

Beyond how all the illegal masses might vote, there is also the matter of the billions being spent to "process", and resettle them. Anyone notice the housing shortage? Housing and rents going up? Maybe a few million more illegals might help. Right?
This isn't anger or fear of the illegals themselves per se, although there is a percentage that will murder, rape and steal once they get here. (we certainly need MORE of that, right?) It is anger that our govt has now turned against the existing population and is actively trying to destroy our economy.

[Bill Tozer]

“Never in U.S. history has an administration simply canceled immigration laws, opened the border, and welcomed in millions of illegal aliens. All arrive illegally, and without audit, or vaccinations and tests in times of pandemic

Cartels now import lethal drugs at will into the United States. We have no idea how many terrorists walk across the border each day.

Almost all the entering millions who break the law are poor, without high school diplomas or English skills, and in dire need of massive federal and state housing, food, education, legal, and health subsidies.

Do the leftists in Washington believe that millions of dependent new residents will look to the Left for decades of support and soon find ways to reciprocate with fealty at the polls? Is that why Democrats brag in unapologetic tribalist fashion about changing the demography of the electorate?”

https://jewishworldreview.com/0522/hanson051922.php

[Bill Tozer]

Our firecracker, A. Coulter. Sorry scenes if you posted this already.

Ann Coulter: Here Are the Nutcases Who Believe in ‘Replacement’

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2022/05/18/ann-coulter-here-are-the-nutcases-who-believe-in-replacement/

[Paul Emery]

George

Of course T/ucker didn't promote or supported "replacements" but what he did do is hammer away on it as a Democratic plan, which was not true, to stir up violent racist opposition. It succeeded in inspiring the murder of 10 innocent citizens in Baltimore. Of that there is no doubt.

[Bill Tozer]

Paul.

“as a Democratic plan, which was not true, to stir….”

I strongly disagree. The Democrats have been touting the Replacement for years.
I also strongly disagree that Tucker’s purpose was “to stir up racist opposition.”
I also strongly disagree that anything on Fox inspired the murder of 10 in Baltimore and I also disagree to your assertion that “there is no doubt.” There is volumes of doubt when dealing with a very mentality ill 17-18 year old.

I know, it was all Trump’s fault that a young Iranian soldier blew an Ukrainian passenger jet out of the sky.

There is no doubt that Bernie Sander’s rhetoric inspired James Hodgkinson

Hodgkinson, a 66-year-old man, asked a passing congressman—South Carolina’s Jeff Duncan—whether Republicans or Democrats were on the field practicing. Once he received confirmation that the Republican representatives were the ones playing ball, Hodgkinson fired off 60 rounds into the unsuspecting elected officials.

5 shot, including Whip Steve Scalise who is still wheelchair bound. One bullet narrowed missed Rand Paul.

Who are we to blame for inspiring Darrell Brooks Jr. to do the Waukesha Christmas parade attack that killed six and injured 60!! All the blame for inspiring Brooks’s murder spree lays solely at Nikole Hannah-Jones’s feet.

Not only that, but I blame Nikole Hannah-Jones for not only inspiring Darrell Brooks for his rampage through a Christmas Parade, I also blame her for the Buffalo massacre.

Nikole Hannah-Jones was the catalyst for the Waukesha AND Buffalo attacks. Hang her from the highest tree.

‘Buffalo Shooter Had Waukesha Parade Victim's Name On Rifle: Report’

https://patch.com/wisconsin/waukesha/buffalo-shooter-had-waukesha-parade-victims-name-rifle-report

[fish]

Posted by: Paul Emery | 19 May 2022 at 04:02 PM

Of course T/ucker didn't promote or supported "replacements" but what he did do is hammer away on it as a Democratic plan

Who is T/ucker??? Where were 10 innocent citizens killed???

[scenes]

re: immigrants.

I assume that one big change was the Democrats no longer represent the working class, pretty much a given at this point.

Here's an example of the change in attitude over time.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/samuels-immigration-0325-2.png

[fish]

Posted by: Paul Emery | 19 May 2022 at 04:02 PM

Oh...I get it now.....Payton S. Gedro = T/ucker! An interesting faith you adhere to Psul...what with the different names for prominent people in the body of your catechism.

And I thought Christianity was confusing.

[George Rebane]

PaulE 402pm - Only in your universe is all that true Paul, only there. And in you 115pm you did indeed claim that Tucker 'supported' replacement.

[Don Bessee]

Well that was fast sliding in a replacement. -

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pentagon-spokesman-john-kirby-moving-to-white-house/ar-AAXuHAW?pc=U531&cvid=ba3d0c4387ef46498ce7772a6268494b

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

Opps. Moved from Sandbox.

“Great Replacement: It's not real, it's a "conspiracy theory," but it's a good thing it's happening, and shut up and stop complaining about it...”

https://twitter.com/RevolverNewsUSA/status/1526924925965041664?

[Scott O]

re BT 10:19 - And if you do point out the people saying good things about it - "You're RACIST!"