California Exodus Refuted?

George Rebane

A reader and correspondent sent me the following article – ‘A Shocking Number of Californians Are Moving to Texas Unless You Do Basic Math’.  Therein the author cites data and analysis from a market data firm Placer.ai which sidesteps the long-running and well-established California exodus phenomenon, focuses on the California-to-Texas migration, and erroneously concludes that there is nothing unexpected about the numbers that Placer has collected.  To wit –

The logic here is very simple. Some people move between states every year for normal life reasons. That’s good and normal and not cause for alarm. And California has the most people of any state. Therefore, all things equal, we’d expect lots of people from California to be moving to Texas. In fact, we would expect that more people from California would be moving to Texas than from any other state, again, because California has the most people. This would not in itself imply anything is wrong with California or great about Texas. It would simply mean people are doing what we would expect them to do. The only way this particular data point would suggest something is indeed amiss is if a disproportionate number of new Texans came from California relative to California’s population.

That may sound confusing, but doing some quick math makes it all very clear. The population of the United States minus Texas—because people already in Texas cannot move to Texas—is 300.86 million people. California’s population is 39.35 million, or 13 percent of the U.S.’ non-Texas population. Therefore, more than 13 percent of Texas’ new residents would have to be Californians in order for there to be something of note going on here.

But that’s not the case. According to Placer.ai, which uses “foot traffic data” gleaned by tracking people's phones, 11.1 percent of new Texans from July 2019 and July 2022 are from California. That’s actually slightly less than one would expect based on an even distribution. If anything, the pertinent question from Placer.ai’s data is: Why are so few Californians moving to Texas?

The main flaw in the argument here is that people move randomly between states with ingress and egress rates proportional to source and target populations.  This is a gross error in the current situation where most of migrating Americans are motivated by economic (taxes, regulations) and socio-political (crime, education) reasons.  For example, Texas receives many new residents from so-called shithole cities in states like New York, Illinois, New Jersey, in addition to California.  Such movements can invalidate any arguments based on randomness.  For example, California’s lower percentage of “new Texans” can be completely explained away by the greater number of the state’s immigrants arriving from the other escape-worthy states that need have no relationship to population proportions, and greater numbers of Californians moving to other states such as Idaho, Wyoming, and Florida.

Bloomberg reports, “The long-term migration out of California accelerated during the Covid-19 crisis, with Texas, Washington and Florida as top destinations for people moving out of the state, according to a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.” (here)  The LA Times continues its ongoing reports of the exodus with ‘California Exodus Continues: LA, San Francisco lead the way’.

Liberals across the land are desperate to refute the mass migrations out of the major shithole regions that Democratic administrations have created since the launch of Great Society programs.  This gives rise to a number of loudly argued but logically weak pieces that appear in various lamestream outlets.  The fundamental reality is that California continues to create conditions that drive out large numbers of its wealth-generating workers and businesses.  This is apparent from all types of correctly analyzed data starting with what we learn from the Dept of Commerce (Census Bureau) and going all the way down to California’s historic first-time reduction in the number of representatives we send to Congress.

Comments

[Scott O]

U-haul knows the facts about this in spades. If you don't believe it just look at the rates from and to CA for trailers and trucks.
Reality doesn't give a crap about your narratives.

[Paul Emery]

Speaking of shit hole states George when has a Democratic State ever gone through this?

Jackson, Mississippi, Is Without Running Water For 'Unknown Period Of Time'

Jackson, Mississippi, lacks reliable drinking water for the indefinite future after pumps at the water treatment facility failed ― a problem the city’s mayor attributed to recent flooding.

“Until it is fixed, it means we do not have reliable running water at scale,” Gov. Tate Reeves (R) said at a Monday press conference, per the Mississippi Free Press. “It means the city cannot produce enough water to fight fires, to reliably flush toilets, and to meet other critical needs.”

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jackson-mississippi-no-water_n_630e22c5e4b088f74237bbda

[Don Bessee]

So an act of God aka flood is the Govs fault oh great ponytail of ignorance? Pathetic seems to be the standard for the ponytail of ignorance now.

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

‘Speaking of shit hole states George when has a Democratic State ever gone through this?’

I dunno. Maybe Louisiana during Katrina. Ask Cold Cash Jefferson since he led the Dem response to Katrina.

[Paul Emery]

Louisiana Democratic State Bill? Since when?

Is Louisiana State Democrat or Republican?
Both US Senators, Bill Cassidy and John Kennedy, are Republicans. Republicans also hold five of the six U.S. Representative seats from Louisiana. Every statewide office, with the exception of governor, is held by a Republican, and both chambers of the state legislature are majority Republican.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=is+lousiana+a+democratic+state%3F

[psfish]

Posted by: psul “I’ll be a Hero” Emery | 30 August 2022 at 08:32 PM

Maybe you should take your own advice and move. Bring the magic of Green Libertarianism to the Old South.

[Bill Tozer]

Ok, Psul. It’s only New Orleans that is a shit hole blue city. And, run by a Dem Governor. Cold Cash Jefferson is in prison, btw.
—————
Two stories. Neither one specially about CA (who lost a Congressional seat for the first time in the State’s history), but a theme emerges. As FL Gov De Santis pointed out, you see a whole bunch of CA license plates in Florida, but not so many Florida license plates in CA.
#1). WHO FACT CHECKS A DEMOCRAT?

“Minnesota resembles New York and California. All three are failing states that have consciously chosen a pro-criminal ideology that proved catastrophic for normal citizens.”

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/08/who-fact-checks-a-democrat.php
———————-
#2). ‘Why New York City is Awful Right Now’
By Ann Coulter

“But the New York I’ve come back to is Death Wish New York. Thank you, Democrats! In 2019, for the first time since World War Two — except one year, 1964 — Democrats won total control of state government. And the No. 1 item on their “To Do” list was to pass a no-jail law, requiring the immediate release of suspects arrested for basically anything short of intentional murder.”
(…)
“On the bright side, there are a lot fewer rich people to inconvenience, what with 300,000 of them fleeing New York in 2020 — mostly to Florida — and depriving the city of $21 billion in taxable income. Let’s just hope the criminals are religious about reporting all their income.”

https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/why-new-york-city-is-awful-right

[Bill Tozer]

Illinois Governor Takes Parting Shot At State’s Richest Man For Moving To Florida

“Griffin — whose $29 billion net worth places him among the 50 richest men on the planet, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index — moved to Miami after voicing concerns about the lackluster business environment and rising crime rates in Chicago. He announced last month that Citadel, which manages $51 billion in assets, will likewise relocate to Florida.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/illinois-governor-takes-parting-shot-at-states-richest-man-for-moving-to-florida
————————-
Billionaire Ken Griffin’s Citadel Becomes Latest Company To Move Headquarters Out Of Illinois

Griffin has feuded with Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a fellow billionaire, in recent years, most recently over crime rates in Chicago. Griffin told Bloomberg last month “we’re getting to the point that if things don’t change, we’re gone.” Griffin donated $25 million to the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab program for policing and public safety training, and has backed Pritzker’s opponent in the upcoming gubernatorial election.

SURPRISING FACT

Crime is up 34% in Chicago for the year to date, compared to the same period in 2021, according to the Chicago Police Department. Murders are down 11%, but robberies are up 21%, burglaries are up 31% and theft is up 65%.

$25.2 billion. That’s Griffin’s net worth, according to Forbes’ real-time wealth tracker. A Citadel spokesperson told Forbes Griffin has donated $600 million to educational, cultural, medical and civic organizations in the Chicago area.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/annakaplan/2022/06/23/billionaire-ken-griffins-citadel-becomes-latest-company-to-move-headquarters-out-of-illinois/?sh=493863d72c7c

[Scott O]

Paul's a brave little soldier - got his little pop gun pointed at the bad guys.
One town in one state has a temporary problem and Paul thinks that completely upends decades of evidence of Dem failure.
You go with that, Paul. It's all you have to feel better about being on the losing side of history.
We don't want to read about you throwing yourself in front of a Tesla on Spring Street.

[Scott O]

Bill 8:45 - Now you know Paul is adverse to anything written by Coulter. He would never agree to anything she would write. Ever.
Right, Paul?

[ShowMeKid]

Perhaps Mr. Emery has forgotten the water problems of some small Central Valley towns right here in California that have undrinkable water. Also probably forgot California has the highest homeless population, the largest welfare population,the most expensive housing costs, the lack of of a reliable source of energy, a water storage problem, the highest fuel prices in the USA, the highest taxes on fuel in the country and the highest taxes in the country, just to name a few problems. And what color is California.....BLUE, BLUE, BLUE. You must be so proud of your people who run this place.

Also, I have friends who have relocated to Texas, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, Kentucky,Idaho and Tennessee. I have friends who live in many states and none of them have moved here and no one I know or have met has moved here from another state lately.

[Bill Tozer]

From Dr. Rebane’s link

California exodus continues, with L.A., San Francisco leading the way: ‘Why are we here?’

“After living in the Bay Area for nearly seven years, Hari Raghavan and his wife decided to leave for the East Coast late last year.

They were both working remotely and wanted to leave California because of the high cost of living and urban crime. So they made a list of potential relocation cities before choosing Miami for its sunny weather and what they perceived was a better sense of safety.

Raghavan said that their Oakland house had been broken into four times and that prior to the pandemic, his wife called him every day during her seven-minute walk home from the BART station because she felt safer with someone on the phone. After moving to Miami, Raghavan said they accidentally left their garage door open one day and were floored when they returned home and found nothing had been stolen.

“We moved to the Bay Area because we had to be there if you want to work in tech and start-ups, and now that that’s no longer a tether, we took a long hard look and said, ‘Wait, why are we here again?’ ” Raghavan said.

He said there wasn’t much draw in California’s quality of life, local or social policies, or cost of living. “That forced us to question where we actually wanted to live,” he said.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-07-29/california-exodus-continues-l-a-san-francisco-lead-the-way

[Ralph Underglass]

The CA Energy Commission has announced that CA will experience rolling blackouts for the next FIVE years. Now that we all have EVs, drive home to charge you new vehicle to dead outlets. Most folks charge their EVs at home, lol.

The Libs are doing such a great job of euining...er...running our state that we now rely on 30% of our electricity from out of state...and it ain't green or cheap.

https://fb.watch/feIvrRFpnU/

[Bill Tozer]

ShowMeKid @ 9:55 pm

So, this is where we are at. Mr. Emery wants us to debate whether Jackson, Mississippi is a shithole or not. One of the two treatment water plants failed in a flood, leaving tens of thousands to boil water to make it potable or survive on bottled water. But here we are. PS: Once worked for a guy from Jackson, Mississippi. He hated slackers…oh boy, did he ever.

Good point mentioning the Central Valley small farming communities who literally ran out of water. When you run out of water in the richest state in the Union, potable water or not is the least of your concerns. Jackson, Mississippi’s problems are temporary. Central Valley’s water problems are not.

[Gregory]

I've a trip to los angeleze later this month... is the high speed rail line running yet?

"Mr. Emery wants us to debate whether Jackson, Mississippi is a shithole or not"... no, he just wants to punch. In a race between Jackson and the high speed rail there is no contest.

There will be tap water in Jackson soon.

[Barry Pruett]

You know, my wife and I were planning on moving, but political events in Nevada county during this calendar year convinced us to stay a “rage against the machine.” My wife’s words, not mine. Lol.

[ShowMeKid]

Mr. Tozer at 6:20 AM;

I gues Mr. Emery also forgot about the mayor of NOLA that let the school buses sit and get flooded rather than getting them out and used as transportation....and what was his affiliation????...BLUE, BLUE, BLUE.

Where are you Emery??? On a BoyScout/AF weekend carrying bags for officers?

[Bill Tozer]

ShowMeKid @ 10:55 AM.

No, Mr. Emery did not forget about the mayor of Nawlense. What Mr. Emery forgot to do is read the black on the page instead of the white.

“Liberals across the land are desperate to refute the mass migrations out of the major shithole regions that Democratic administrations have created since the launch of Great Society programs”.—Dr. Rebane.

Says ‘regions’ to me. Does it say ‘states’ to you, ShowMeKid? Says major shithole regions to me.

“Texas receives many new residents from so-called shithole cities in states like New York, Illinois, New Jersey, “—Dr. Rebane

Says ‘so-called shithole cities in states’ to me. Are you seeing the same thing? Cities and regions. Like the Ninth Ward. Mississippi got hit harder in places….much harder, but they weren’t moaning before the cameras and hogging up all the national attention.

Now, at Mr. Emery’s age, I figure he has someone carrying his bags, unless it’s his Blatter bag under his long untucked shirt. I figure Mr. Emery finished his service to our country by 1972 at the latest.
Did you know in 1972 that the Great State of Mississippi was 7% Republican, maybe 9% on the high end? And now we find out Louzianna is a red state too!

[Bill Tozer]

Opps. Correction. After searching my foggy memory about that mean ole tuff and gruff and big softie man I once worked for, he was from Greenville, Mississippi, I believe he told me. Small town, not like Jackson. Jackson here I come. Leave Greenville in the dust.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OI8AZ2TFxpA

[Bill Tozer]

Mystery solved. No wonder Psul Emerytoad went after Jackson, MI to label the city as a ‘shithole Republican state.’

Does Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization sound familiar? Jackson Women’s Health Organization as in Jackson, Mississippi?

Like shooting fish in a barrel. Too easy. At least Nevada City Wingnuts are predictable.

[Don Bessee]

You got to love it, the tesla owners cannot flee if they wanted this weekend -

Mere days after approving a controversial plan to ban the sale of piston-powered cars by 2035, California officials have asked residents not to charge their EVs to avoid overwhelming the power grid over Labor Day weekend. The news was announced via a so-called Flex Alert.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/autos/californians-told-not-charge-electric-142200036.html

;-)

[Bill Tozer]

‘Deranged Hayes Blames Mississippi GOP for Water Crisis Under Dem Mayor’

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/kevin-tober/2022/09/14/deranged-hayes-blames-mississippi-gop-water-crisis-under-dem-mayor