'The Death of Direct Democracy Has Been Understated', WSJ headline
George Rebane
The full court press of collectivist neo-Marxism in its progressive, woke, and Democratic Party versions pairs with the programmed hysteria of ‘Climate Change’ (nee global warming) as the two most significant and compelling worldviews being promoted across the globe by developed nations. Both have now reached the heights of religion and actively reject any and all reasonable arguments to refute or falsify them – therefore both are ideologically and firmly anti-science. Their maintenance in the public mind is through a steady and ubiquitous distribution of lies across the educational, entertainment, and news media.
A correspondent sent me a short piece (here) by Chris Martz on the current heatwave harassing the eastern part of the country. Led by the notorious climate science high priest and master of the 'Hockey Stick', UPenn’s Dr Michael Mann, and his big lie du jour is again that such weather/temperature episodes are “unprecedented”. Martz cites the four actual historically high June heatwaves that occurred in 1936, 1944, 1953, and 1988. Nothing has matched them since, and he presents temperature data from several cities on the current heatwave demonstrating their non-sensational statistics.
If we take a slightly deeper look at just the four cited record-setting heatwaves, and treat them as Poisson arrivals (a correct and common approach to use with all kinds of sequentially occurring randomly independent events), then we calculate an arrival rate of 4 per 52 years or 0.0769 arrivals/year. An even lower arrival rate can be argued if we extend the period covered by these four events to the present day, giving us the arrival rate of 4 per 88 years or 0.0455 arrivals/year. Neither is exactly the blistering pace supported by the ongoing climate hysteria.
In fact, we can now use the well-known Poisson process formula for computing the probability that k = 0,1,2,3,… record breaking heatwaves should have occurred in selected time periods after the 1988 heatwave, given that the world was indeed getting alarmingly hotter. (BTW, for the record my position on climate change remains anchored to the interpretation from the Copenhagen Consensus Center as proselytized by its president Bjorn Lomborg.)
So, without further ado the Poisson formula for the probability P(k) of k events in the time period in which arrival rate λ is calculated is simply P(k) = exp(-λ)*λ^k/k!. For the 0.0769 arrivals/year rate we can examine the following 36 year period (1988-2024) during which time we would have expected an average of 36*0.0769 = 2.77 record setting heatwaves to arrive.
The graph below displays the calculated probabilities that at least the indicated number of heatwaves should have occurred in the last 36 years given that the climate process indicated by the recorded heatwave arrivals continues. Of course, the argument made by the climate change calamatists is that things have steadily gotten hotter so that the arrival rate of record setting heatwaves should really have been increasing. This would have upped the probabilities indicated in the graph.
As it stands, we should have had at least one additional record setting heatwave with probability 0.937 during this period, and we have had none. This does not support the ongoing global propaganda of a rapidly warming earth. (30jun24 more here)
Led by the notorious climate science high priest, UPenn’s Dr Horace Mann....
Not to nitpick George but I think you are more properly referring to Michael Mann of U- Penn of climate "Hockey Stick" fame.
https://earth.sas.upenn.edu/people/michael-mann
Posted by: fish ole' | 28 June 2024 at 03:59 PM
fish-
Horace Mann probably had the same mathematical ability of analysis as Michael Mann. So let's give Dr. Rebane a pass on this one.
Posted by: The Estonian Fox | 28 June 2024 at 05:49 PM
Mea culpa gentlemen, my face is red. Of course it was Michael 'Hockey Stick' Mann. I have corrected the blooper.
Posted by: George Rebane | 28 June 2024 at 05:55 PM
Hang on, I thought he was the Doo Wah Diddy Diddy guy.
I admit I'm not seeing the trend
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/30/tmax/1/6/1895-2024?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000
In fact, according to their graphing tool here, the temperature between 1895-2024 was .1F hotter than 1975-2024. Go figure.
...and think that cities, as opposed to states, are a silly thing to measure. There's too much change in size, material, aerosols, over time for weather readings to mean much. Just imagine the heat island that a modern Las Vegas or Phoenix is compared to the 1924 version.
Maybe if everyone stayed home and wore N95 masks we could solve global warming.
The biggest bummer is how people accrue money and/or status points by being involved in the marketing of emergencies. It becomes darned hard to sift through the dross. In addition, people really want comfort more than natural environments. If the glaciers were advancing on New York, the cry to burn coal would spread throughout the land.
Posted by: scenes | 28 June 2024 at 06:57 PM
Where is Stevie Frisch?
Jeffie Pellini?
Michael P. Anderson?
Where is Punchy?
?
Posted by: Gregory | 29 June 2024 at 05:23 PM
They are still on their fainting couches clutching their pearls and crying in their soy lattes since thursday night. LOL
;-)
Posted by: Don Bessee | 29 June 2024 at 07:56 PM
Nah Gregory
Been doing live sound gigs in Sacramento. Busy summer. I'll catch up when I have time. This blog is just an occasional hobby for me not an obsession like it is with the Circle of Jerks of which you are a member,
Posted by: Paul Emery | 29 June 2024 at 09:55 PM
Got it, Punchy. You get tired losing arguments.
Posted by: Gregory | 29 June 2024 at 10:25 PM
Posted by: just psul busy| 29 June 2024 at 09:55 PM
Busy…..so busy….busy, busy, busy, bizzy, bizzay!
Posted by: The artist formerly know as fish ole’ | 30 June 2024 at 06:35 AM
The SCOTUS decision on Chevron will be huge as it relates to the left's climate change hysteria.
Politico of course, sees it as a bad thing:
"The justices just shackled Biden and every future president — and created new messes for Congress to solve"
Gee - the prez ain't a dictator, congress has to be precise in the laws they pass and we can have our day in court against our govt.
Well ain't that somethin'?
Golly - how will we survive if unelected, unaccountable busy-bodies can't fabricate rules?
Oh dear!
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/28/supreme-court-chevron-biden-presidents-00165234
Posted by: Scott O | 30 June 2024 at 07:31 AM
“We finally beat Medicare”
Posted by: Gregory | 30 June 2024 at 12:21 PM
Well I'll be.
From Tractor Supply on Twitter.
https://imgur.com/a/PO2TZ1y
Posted by: scenes | 30 June 2024 at 01:01 PM
Cry-baby fascists:
"On Thursday, the six Republican-appointed justices eliminated the ability of these agencies to enforce their rules through in-house tribunals, rather than go through the far more costly and laborious process of suing corporations in federal courts before juries."
"In house tribunals" are clearly the best for the folks putting on the tribunals.
A fair trial is "laborious" and "costly".
How about we folks in Idaho have an "in-house" tribunal of Robert B. Reich and a neck tie party afterwards?
Saves a lotta money and hassle.
Please deliver me from the left.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-supreme-court-just-sided-with-corporate-america-against-democracy-opinion/ar-BB1piiK3?cvid=b32ae74197944768a8a94b2a9ae9627b&ei=15
Posted by: Scott O | 02 July 2024 at 07:47 PM
So... is this a heat wave. It seems hot but i know it's been hotter here in past years. And it was pretty cool here until last week.
CO2 is worldwide but Scotland is having a cold and wet Summer.
We'll know if this is Climate Change or weather in 30 years. Place your
Bets.
Posted by: Gregory | 06 July 2024 at 03:19 PM
It's still a mystery to me why the people who are most concerned about greenhouse gases also tend to be most in favor of mass immigration from the Third World to the First (and it's higher per-capita C02 and methane emission). Judging from their effect on megafauna (and somewhat smaller), humans pretty well have already done a number on larger animals...and no, native Americans are not ecologically sensitive stewards of the land. Naturally, nuclear plants are off the table for the environmentally minded. Neither of these are new points. Mea culpa.
To be fair, perhaps one reason to pull people out of the global south is to keep them from filling up every available river with trash, but there'll always be more people I suppose.
If I were a cynical person, I'd say that most of the climate hullaballoo was a combination of love of drama and love of control. But then, that's modern political philosophies in a nutshell.
Posted by: scenes | 07 July 2024 at 10:51 AM
So WHO are the nazis? -
Bette Midler Suggests Biden Arrest Republicans, Allow FBI to Use Deadly Force to Regain Democrat House Majority
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/07/05/bette-midler-suggests-biden-arrest-republicans-allow-fbi-to-use-deadly-force-to-regain-democrat-house-majority/
;-)
Posted by: Don Bessee | 07 July 2024 at 05:41 PM
So WHO are the nazis?-
NEA president mocked for copying 'The Office' character Dwight Schrute in 'totally unhinged' speech
'Becky Pringle pulled a Dwight Schrute. She is off-the-rails and desperate to maintain control over the minds of other people’s children'
https://www.foxnews.com/media/nea-president-mocked-copying-office-character-dwight-schrute-totally-unhinged-speech
;-)
Posted by: Don Bessee | 07 July 2024 at 06:45 PM