George Rebane
Oi Weh! Like everyone else, I’ve been keeping a beady eye on the Trump and Biden campaigns for this November’s election. And supporting Trump vs Biden, I’ve been rooting for every sign that the Lip from the Hip is making the gains that show up in the polls. But then there are the legions upon legions of double dummies out there who don’t have a clue about Bumblebrain with his overarching incompetence and evil intentions for America.
In any case, I finally decided to formally calculate my own current belief (probability) that the former president will reoccupy the White House next January. The queasy feeling in my stomach was explained away when the answer came back just north of 0.45 – Trump is still the definite underdog.
The process used to correctly compute one’s subjective probability is based on the individual’s Risk Tolerance Function generated from his formal expression of monetary utility that is basic to decision theory. Once extracted (a separate process), the RTF is then used in a sequence of accepting/rejecting reference gambles under systematically modified payoff odds until convergence at the so-called indifference point which then yields the sought-after measure of belief/probability. The process does not appeal to pre-judgement of any probabilities, just the contingent based decisions to accept/reject bets (that the target event comes/is true) for significant dollar amounts within the decider’s personal financial spectrum and his current net worth. The process named ASPE stands for Automated & Secure Probability Elicitation.
Anyway, the 0.45 number does not make me feel good, and I sincerely hope that new information and results develop during the summer, that upon recalculation, will push my belief significantly above 0.50.
There are too many people in the blob that will not allow Trump back into power/office. He was naive the first time and trusted too many people who had resumes that made them appear to be solidly on his side.
If Trump is allowed back in, he will clean house. It won't be a matter of folks going to jail - it will be entire divisions of leftists stripped of power and left in an empty office with nothing to do.
He might win the election, but we'll have to see who gains solid control of the House and Senate.
If the Dems control both houses, they will simply start up the impeachment machine 24/7 and the Senate will confirm no one. If Trump wins and has a sympathetic Senate, I would worry about his health.
One of the big questions is who will be his VEEP?
Getting rid of Trump after he's elected might turn out to be a huge mistake for the Dems.
There's time for so many events to occur.
And the nation is going to hell no matter who wins, so it's all just a big shit show as far as I can tell.
There is no good here - just a matter of when the aircraft runs out of airspeed and altitude. This is typically a simultaneous event, but who knows - maybe airspeed will go to zero and the plane will then lose altitude?
Amid the screams in the cabin we'll hear the left loudly announce how they meant well.
Swell.
Hmmm...
I wonder what movie they'll show on that flight?
Posted by: Scott O | 15 June 2024 at 06:49 PM
Then there is this kind of thing -
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2024/06/15/former-dem-donor-helberg-now-backing-trump-its-time-to-make-a-change/
;-)
Posted by: Don Bessee | 15 June 2024 at 09:37 PM
Scott O 06:49 PM
MILLENNIUM - the movie.
And we can only hope that "It is the end of the beginning", rather than the end, and all the Dems will be pre-burned.
Posted by: The Estonian Fox | 16 June 2024 at 06:54 AM
. Modern robber barons, Bezos/Fink/Zuckerberg/etc., are very pro-Biden and will spend or censor what it takes. Musk is an insufficient counterweight.
. Democrats have a *much* better ground game at extracting votes from the insane, the elderly, the very poor.
. Well-organized groups who are expert at cash extraction from the public, teacher unions/non-profits/etc, are pro-Biden
. Non well-organized groups who want cash, student loan holders/immigrants/etc., are pro-Biden
. Feelz-based groups tend pro-Biden. There are more abortion activist cat ladies, Pride extremists, and statue-destroyers than there are guys with US flags in pickup trucks.
. The federal bureaucrats and defense firms don't want the iron rice bowl interfered with.
I'd say that everything has to go perfectly for Trump for a win. The baseline is against him.
My general take is to watch the battle from afar. Until the whole shebang collapses due to a hollowing-out of industry, the growth of the HR department as the prime mover in US policy, or simply fundamental changes in technology, there is not a lot to do. Watching psul's pulings or the insanity of an NC City Council meeting on youtube is enough to reinforce the theory, no national news source needed.
Posted by: scenes | 16 June 2024 at 07:03 AM
scenes 7:03 - "Non well-organized groups who want cash..."
Those would be called citizens.
Go ahead and try to get the SS system pulled back to something sustainable. Just try.
Even Trump is promising he won't touch it.
Posted by: Scott O | 16 June 2024 at 07:41 AM
"Go ahead and try to get the SS system pulled back to something sustainable. Just try."
That's a funny beast. My working theory is that people at the lower end get more out than they put in (plus a ROI) and people at the higher end get less. Is it a forced savings plan or a public welfare system? Maybe both, although they could stand to split out the two, just for honesty's sake.
Medicare is the highly abused one I expect. Older people, at least some, have a nearly infinite ability to demand healthcare, especially at the non-productive margin of the thing, while only putting in a fraction of the real cost in terms of payroll deductions. Folks will genuinely think that 'I paid for that' when they really haven't. In addition, there are millions who were in the military for a year or so fixing radios and working with file cabinets who receive some sort of permanent benefits, although I don't know the gory details of the system.
Maybe AI and robots will save the day, but I see no evidence of that.
Posted by: scenes | 16 June 2024 at 08:15 AM
scenes - "My working theory is that people at the lower end get more out than they put in..."
Theory? Actually, that's one of its 'features'.
and
"have a nearly infinite ability to demand healthcare..."
Well - since the majority of folks think this is a "human right" and that the gubmint is the provider of our rights -
Do the math.
Posted by: Scott O | 16 June 2024 at 09:15 AM
"Theory? Actually, that's one of its 'features'."
I've always assumed that, but it's a non-trivial calculation to make.
A person could pound out a spreadsheet, put in t-bill rates/pricing and their monthly donation, maybe doing it by the year would be close enough.
I'd probably just get angry, so there's no point.
What I think is funny is the murmuring background you always hear to reduce or otherwise cap people at the high-end of the SS scale, when in truth it's those people who got ripped off to begin with.
Like I alluded to, a more transparent system would be a great idea. You get out *exactly* what you put in, let's say at bond rates in order to keep the vagaries of the stock market out of it. Anything beyond that is simply part of the welfare system, to be argued about separately.
Posted by: scenes | 16 June 2024 at 11:29 AM
"Anything beyond that is simply part of the welfare system"
That's how the Dems want to "save" it. They uncap the limit on income used to determine your "fair share" of "contributions" but keep the cap on how much you can get out. It will become a straight out welfare scam.
And it will still go broke.
Posted by: Scott O | 16 June 2024 at 05:03 PM
"That's how the Dems want to "save" it."
I expect it will be part of some larger bill that also pools 401(k) funds with public pensions.
Posted by: scenes | 16 June 2024 at 07:13 PM
So many "Old Man Yells at Cloud" moments leading up to November.....
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/16/politics/joe-biden-supreme-court-warning-barack-obama-jimmy-kimmel/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
Posted by: fish ole' | 17 June 2024 at 07:34 AM