Rebane's Ruminations

Letters from the Revolution – 24jul20 (updated 26jul20)

George Rebane

No one’s interests, objectives, values, … will exactly match yours.  The best you can ever do is support those with whom you share the most in common.

Kudos to our local restaurants Old Town Café, Sergio’s, and Friar Tucks for remaining open and in business despite Gov Newsom’s unconstitutional diktats and the compliantly cringing Nevada County Environmental Health Department’s threats to close and fine them.  The poster on their doors says it all.

[update] ‘News Media Becomes Fluent in Newspeak’ observes Gerard Baker in the 20jul20 WSJ.  He cites Orwell’s “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength”, and writes, Part of George Orwell’s genius lay in his insight that manipulation of language was essential to the revolutionary project. If you can command popular compliance with a lexicon that reorders—or even inverts—the widely understood meaning of political terms, you can remake society as much as you can with any law, mandate or act of force. Thought is constrained by the limits of language, and so language becomes a vital tool for placing limits on thought.”  Baker apparently is not aware of the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis of which Orwell undoubtedly was.  S-W makes the strong claim that one can only think thoughts that can be expressed in the language(s) one knows.  The Left quickly became the leading practitioner of this facet of human cognition, and has applied it worldwide where it has come to control the institutions of education, news media, and entertainment.

[26jul20 update]  Democrat Big Lies just continue washing over the country.  The latest is from Dem big city mayors who tell their know-nothings that the president’s sending federal forces into their cities to enforce federal laws, which the mayors refuse to do, is unconstitutional.  As former AG Michael Mulkasey patiently made clear on FN, the truth is exactly the opposite.  The Constitution requires the president to send in federal LE forces wherever they are needed in the country in order to enforce federal laws – e.g. secure and defend federal property.  Another longstanding Dem whopper is the ongoing charge that Trump has mishandled the federal C19 response, which ‘mishandling’ no one seems to be able to define.  So, when Bumblebrain was asked on MSNBC what the correct response should be when he is president, he stuttered through his ‘six point plan’ containing items each one of which had already been initiated by President Trump and is already in operation.  The liberal interviewer was either too ignorant to call Biden on his purloined ‘plan’, or didn’t want to tell her audience that Bumblebrain had blown another one.

 

Returning to Race-based College Admissions

George Rebane

[This is the transcript of my resumed regular KVMR radio commentary broadcast on 3 June 2020.]

Former University of California regent Ward Connerly founded the American Civil Rights Institute in response to the corrupt racism that affirmative action introduced into state government contracting, public jobs hiring, and deciding who would be admitted to state schools.  Almost 25 years ago he launched Prop 209 which was the successful ballot initiative that made it illegal for California to consider race in performing any of those functions.

Being able to award contracts, jobs, and admissions on the basis of race was a big progressive vote getter for the state’s Democratic Party, and leftwing politicians have been chafing for all these years trying to figure out how to make racial patrimony legal again.

In the meantime, race-based admissions into the nation’s universities and colleges has become a much-publicized issue, especially after it was discovered that elite universities were leading the pack with racial quota systems in their admissions programs applied in the most corrupt and merit-free manner.  For these elitist administrations academic merit became a racist criterion when considering applicants for their freshman classes.  Since African-American and Hispanic students ranked way below the Asians and whites in academic achievement, it was clear that something had to be done to ‘level the playing field’ and bring social justice to bear.

The result was that race quotas were pushed to the top, and academic merit was demoted in the ranking of factors that would recommend admission.  The proponents of academics started pushing back when these admissions policies came to light.  However, nobody really cared how the white applicants were discriminated against.  What really hit a nerve on the race-based policies was the dirty deal dealt to Asian-American applicants.  This cohort of minority students always blew the tops off their high school grades, achievement tests, and any other criteria like extra-curricular activities and breadth of interests.  If the new progressive race-based admissions standards were fairly applied to all minorities, the Asian-American kids would have flooded the enrollment rolls.  What to do now?

Well, the answer to the progressive administrations was obvious, lay on another layer of corruption and eliminate any semblance of balance between minority and academic requirements.  If you were black or Latino, you went to the head of the line until the quota was filled, and that was that.  However, when the Asian-American community got wind of such obviously biased and unfair practices, they got active and involved.  The result was that these tilted playing field practices made national headlines with our polarized country predictably lined up on both sides of the issue.

Today, California’s Democrats see an opportunity to eliminate the last barriers to race-based admissions policies.  This week the State Assembly’s Appropriations Committee will vote to pass ACA5, the proposed constitutional amendment to overturn Prop209, and again legitimize race-based admissions.  The 81-year-old Ward Connerly has returned to work with a handful of very devoted Asian-American civic groups to stop ACA5, which most likely will be railroaded through the Senate during this pandemic season without a single public hearing.  It will then appear on the November ballot to let Californians again decide how they want to diminish and demote the state’s higher education systems.  The reinstatement of this corrupt practice will be sold to our electorate under the guise of affirmative action.  In opposition, Asian-Americans against ACA5 know that “If it passes, Asian-American students will be further scapegoated and penalized in college admissions.”  Those Californians who believe in a colorblind society when it comes to government preferences and perks should join to oppose ACA5 on the November ballot.

Should it pass, lawsuits are already being prepared to fight this discriminatory amendment.  And there’s a good chance the case will end up before the Supreme Court. The plaintiffs hope that the court would then rule as clearly and categorically as Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in a 2007 opinion: “The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” (more here)

My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on Rebane’s Ruminations where the transcript of this commentary is posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However, my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening.

Image of ignorance and/or incompetence (updated 14may20)

George Rebane

To again illustrate what we have been talking about the government’s basis for C19 policy decisions, the above graph and its annotation (from the 13may20 SacBee here) show raw test positive (TP) ratios over time, giving no hint of either the test’s reliability parameters, the tested sample (size and provenance), or knowledge that raw TP fractions are next to useless in low prevalence populations and need to be corrected to obtain actual population fractions to support policy decisions.  If any of these people, starting with WHO personnel and working down to the state level, claim to have a relevant education to qualify them for their positions, they have every right to demand a full tuition refund from the school(s) they attended.  Unfortunately, the beat goes on.

[update]  Here’s another example of what NO ONE is telling the unquestioning public, and no one knows to ask (or even cares as witnessed by RR commenters).  The graphic below shows two curves for a certain ‘infection test’ – the blue one is the probability of actually being currently infected with the C19 virus, given that your test came back positive; and the orange one gives the probability that you are free of the virus, given that your test came back negative.  The test's sensitivity, P(TP|V), and specificity, P(-TP|-V), are shown.  Our prevalence (fraction of population currently infected) is at most 5% or 0.05.  So if your test came back positive, the chance P(V|TP) that you actually had the disease is only 0.333 or one out of three.  That means that it’s two out of three that you are not infected.  However, at such a low prevalence if your test came back negative, the chance P(-V|-TP) that you don’t have the coronavirus is 0.9994, or almost certain that you are virus free.  The problem now is what are you or anyone else going to do with those test results.

Well, if you tested positive you can always request to be tested again.  Given that first positive, if the second test comes back positive again, your probability of having the virus jumps up to 0.826 or a little more than 9 out of 11.  If the second test comes back negative, then your probability of being infected drops to 0.027, or about 1 out of 40.  The question now is, what facilities will be available to do multiple testing on each individual so as to push the probability of infection or of no infection beyond some required threshold that determines what to do with the patient.  The answer is ‘no one knows’ because no one has considered these questions amid the cries for testing and more testing – there is no guidance to the states, and apparently the states aren’t smart enough to determine and announce their own probabilities and response thresholds.  Among all the shouting about testing, that’s the reality of how the pandemic is being handled by government healthcare ‘experts’.

[14may20 update]  As we have been telling readers, lockdown is NOT a solution - short or longterm. 'Stanford Antibody Studies Indicate No Safe Option for Eradicating COVID-19, Including Lockdown'.

Hunker Down Diary – 9may20

George Rebane

Today is HD63 in the Rebane household, and we are beginning to see little stirrings of sanity across California with even timid Nevada County showing signs of developing a C19 resistant backbone.  Now we are starting to see appeals from various late comers for letter writing campaigns to our electeds to exhort them to end our county’s lockdown.  In response, our Supes are now meeting in secret with the county health officer and others to develop plans to return to some semblance of normalcy, having taken the first baby step to loosen things to the level dictated from Sacramento (really a cop out, here).  Many other counties have more courageously and correctly led the state in returning their communities to prudent post-C19 environments of business, commerce, and social interaction.  That one-size-fits-all policies are wrong can be seen from the data on the disparate impact that the virus has had on our country. (here)

The upshot of it all, one that escapes many people and all progressives, is that we will sooner than later end the lockdown no matter what our command/control governments tell us.  This is an easy deduction, and one that RR (along with other conservatives) has attempted to communicate for the last two months.  We can open up quickly and purposefully with a set of broadly agreed prudent behaviors that are integrated into our new social contract, thereby saving the substantial part of our economy that remains and can launch into rapid recovery.  Or we can continue hunkering down toward a complete destruction of our economy so that unemployment rates go north of 50%, and result in a wholesale grassroots rebellion of a paupered citizenry with unpredictable results.

Scattershots – 28apr20 (updated 2may20)

George Rebane

501c3 bets to co-locate money and mouth.  RR’s commenters have over the years made assertions and predictions with such deeply held convictions as to draw more than a smile from the rest of us.  So here’s a proposal (again) – offer odds and a material dollar bet that your measurable assertion will come true.  The bet may be taken up to a specified dollar amount by challengers.  The loser must remit his lost amount to the bona fide 501c3 charity chosen by the winner.  Say, one of our lefties and true believers in Bumblebrain’s November victory offers 2:1 odds for a maximum of $500.  Then if I take a $100 of that and lose, I have to mail a check to the 501c3 that he specified.  If I win, then the leftie has to mail a $200 check to my 501c3.  The bettors will confirm and adjudicate their own bets – honorable behavior is paramount. The comment streams will become the indelible archive of such bets, and I will keep an updated post of all such pending bets similar to how I ran the Dropout Derby.  The aim here is to sanitize RR comment streams from the reams of unmitigated bullshit posted by commenters, some who have the courage to use their real names, and the sackheads who don’t have any perceivable courage of their convictions as they continue spouting anonymous crap in these pages.  I have labeled these as ‘501c3 bets’, and a commenter can challenge the veracity of another commenter with such a bet, that if refused will communicate to all the level of conviction.  My own prediction is that most commenters will be happy to continue just passing hot air anonymously.

Socialist scumbags want others to pay off their perfidious vote buying debts.  For the last few decades our progressives have bought the votes of public sector employees – police, first responders, teachers, pencil pushing bureaucrats, … - through thug-like union negotiations for lavish pension plans that are now unfunded to the tune of trillions.  Today the evil Dems in Congress are attempting to attach to C19 relief legislation pension bailouts for the various Dem run states.  In short, they want future, say, Floridians to pay for the retirements of, say, Illinois state employees.  As Sen Rick Scott (R-FL) points out (here), federal bailouts like these are a very bad policy to begin with, but more so because they reward the continuance of blatantly corrupt and cunning incompetence by liberal politicians in such state governments.

‘You can never, ever trust the Communists.’ is a wise exhortation memorialized by William McGurn writing (here) about an elderly Hong Kong lawyer and democracy activist recently arrested by the Chinese communists for his role in illuminating the illegal conversion to totalitarianism of the former British colony.  The takeaway here is that today communism sports a broad halo of similar ideologies embraced by the greater Left who range from kitchen table communists, through practicing progressive academics, to legions of liberal politicians, media personalities, and entertainers, all abetted by a solid phalanx of leftwing government employees embedded in countless agencies and bureaus across the country.  Their common denominator is the Alinsky Almanac of public propaganda which was first institutionalized by V. Lenin who held that “Communists have only contempt for the ‘bourgeois’ idea of objective truth, replacing it with a morality that holds ‘truth’ to be whatever is expedient for the party at that moment. “  We see that replicated daily in our lamestream media.

Nevada County government is turning out to be a toady when it comes to asserting the obvious fact that rural counties are not the same as urban counties, and should therefore not be forced to adhere to the one-size-fits-all lockdown mandates from Sacramento.  Absent our county, six northern California counties have joined in a publicized protest (here) of the governor’s wrong-headed program to fight the C19 virus at great cost to the state’s private and public sectors.  Gavin Newsom, along with other Dem governors, sees this as another opportunity to ratchet up the state’s power over citizens, power once institutionalized that will be hard for citizens to walk back once the crisis is over.  ‘How Louisiana Reopened After Hurricane Katrina’ is only a recent example of how the government takes and keeps.  Closer to home, Nevada County has now issued a formal legal lockdown order that is to stay in force until 15 May 2020 (here).  The document is beyond byzantine government-speak with detailed exceptions that continue for pages and can be gratuitously interpreted 20 ways from Sunday.  Reading such prolific verbiage always makes me wonder again what happens to otherwise normal and reasonable people after they enter politics.  To various degrees they all become tainted personages who confirm their obvious blemishes by posturing themselves as being exalted by their positions of power.

[29apr20 update]  Anti-C19 drugs are on a rollercoaster ride of acceptability.  First we heard good things about re-purposing hydroxychloroquine (HCL) plus additives as being both a C19 prophylactic and a curative, then the lamestream screamed at Trump for suggesting its use and studies were dug up to show that it didn’t work.  The same happened to Gilead’s Remdesivir, first it was good (here), then it was totally ineffective according to the lamestream.  Now it looks like both HCL and Remdesivir are back up on the C19 Pharma Hit Parade.  As of 1030 29apr20 the Dow is up 609 (2.55%) on news of a most comprehensive study showing that Remdesivir works (here and here), and also other studies coming in showing that HCL also works (here).  A kicker for this news is that several pharma companies developing C19 vaccines report progress is being made much faster than the experts anticipated with at least two candidates going into early human trials.

[30apr20 update]  C19 mortality rates.  A correspondent sent me a link to a website (here) that specializes in collecting data and making information out of it.  Of current interest are the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.  This posting covers the age and health factors on C19 deaths.  Analysis of the data delivers the punchline – “both aging and being unhealthy, separately, contribute to a greater risk of dying from Covid.  The risk from being unhealthy, though, is far greater.”  This important finding is backed up by numerous clearly laid out charts and tables from which I lifted the one below.  (Actually, TypePad is partially up right now, but won't accept graphics for posting.  1may20 - and now it will.)

[1may20 update]  More C19 data to assuage the TDS sufferers who can read.

[2may20 update]  The mentality of the Nevada County BoS.  The Supes shut down our local ‘transfer station’ (aka county dump) for a week before wholesale public uproar made them rescind their dictum.  What haunts me about their action, as the most recent and locally accessible decision by government politicians, is how could they possibly have come to such a conclusion to limit the hours and number of vehicles that the Waste Management dump could, should, and would service in a day.  When some county staffer laid such a proposal before the Board, why was it not unanimously rejected in the first, say, 3 to 5 milliseconds?  Cleaning up junk from your household and land during an imposed lengthy quarantine is an extremely useful, rewarding, timely, and safe activity.  Packing your vehicle or trailer with junk and taking it to the dump exposes no one to unnecessary risk of infection, including to Waste Management’s workers who need their hours in this time of economic distress.  All that became obvious to our Supes only after they were overwhelmed with the public pushback that they had acted with blatant and palpable idiocy to compliantly place yet another such unreasonable restriction upon the citizenry.  The item of enduring interest is what went through their collective minds when they issued that edict.  The record shows that not a single supervisor stood to publicly oppose it.  Understanding this same process, as it is historically practiced by politically powerful assemblies at all levels across the land, is important for us as a free people, so that we can be vigilant and work hard to reduce and/or eliminate its effects on our lives.

 

Hunker Down Diary – 23apr20 (updated)

George Rebane

We are now in HD47 and watching how the national lockdown has slowly turned from a health safety policy to yet another political match between the Left and the Trump administration.  These days we do a lot of reading about C19, recognizing new data on the extent of existing herd immunity, greatly lowered death rates, and contagion numbers a bit higher than the annual flu, in addition to the curves already being flattened.  And therefore, by our lights it’s long-past time to end the lockdown; at least start a rapid phased loosening of commerce that’s based on regional factors.

It is clear which side wants maximum misery and economic disruption/destruction in these months leading up to the election.  The party with no policy but continuing criticism of those fighting the pandemic is working wonders to rend the country during this global pandemic.

In the meantime, we note that Placerville has already appealed to Gov Newsom about pulling back on his ‘one size fits all’ statewide C19 proscriptions so favored by socialists.  Placerville correctly argues that it is a low-density rural town which does not compare with LA and the other metro areas of the state.  Meanwhile, our own county and city governments continue to meekly toe the lockdown line, making not a discernible peep to Sacramento as to the growing insanity and hardship of practicing the statewide policy in these foothills.  The correct way forward here is to let the shops and public spaces open, and then deal with any jackboot responses from state bureaucrats – always better to ask for forgiveness than permission.  What the hell can they do to us anyway as other states and regions of similar descriptions are already going on with their lives?

In the ‘don’t let a crisis go to waste’ department, we note that California has now issued a new set of guidelines to start statewide death panels in healthcare facilities like clinics and hospitals.  People will be scored based on age and health to determine their priority/access to healthcare.  The whole process is sold on the basis of “life-cycle considerations” to allocate treatment resources.  The idea being that older folks have already had enough enjoyment out of life, and since the younger ones haven’t, scores based on age should be used in allocating limited care.  There is no provision in these guidelines for other factors like the social contributions that many older people continue to provide their communities. (more here)

I think such an allocation policy has been done informally on a case-by-case basis for years, and I see nothing wrong with that practice.  But bureaucratized formalization is a giant step toward bringing the state into the middle of intimate doctor-patient relationships, and a notch away from new requirements for healthcare professionals having to request permission before providing this or that type of care, and then reporting what was provided and its aftermath.  As most of us know, once this kind of command/control starts, it is almost impossible to walk back.  And within the greater embrace of encroaching socialism, in America it has already started.

In the 23apr20 WSJ Dan Henninger writes a compelling column – ‘How We’ll Live With Coronavirus’ - wherein he argues that human nature will trump egregious lockdown policies, and people will learn to live with C19 as just another disease that needs to be recognized and dealt with in the daily round, much as we did with all the other dreaded diseases before we eventually conquered them.  Extended cowering has never been a prominent part of how people behave – save perhaps under the tender mercies of a KGB or Stasi.

[update] Newsom’s 6-point plan to lift lockdown was released about a week ago - I forgot to mention it above.  On the face of it, his plan ranges somewhere between cynical and insane.  For openers, most of its provisions are either unattainable or will only come to pass in the far future.  You can review them here.  His message to the state’s idiots is a warning that the dependers on relaxing the shutdown would hang on “science, not politics”.  Now that is one the largest cartloads of bullcrap any politician has delivered in a long time.  Of course his decision will depend on politics – the current delay in opening up already confirms it.  The many considerations that will go into his actual decision will be munged over only in the political arena, and science will enter in only for CYA purposes to camouflage some more partisan and self-serving factor that cannot be revealed to the public.

The whole thing reeks of the usual subterfuge used to cover the socialists’ perpetual campaign to remove citizens’ rights and freedoms.  I’m reminded of the ongoing 2A battle that cites ‘gun violence’ as its raison d’etre.  There the Left has been diligent in constructively abrogating our 2A rights.  How?  By not being able to directly confiscate our firearms, they instead continue to pass collateral laws and regulations which make their purchase, possession, storage, transport, use, and purchase of related equipments (e.g. ammo for openers) between difficult to illegal.  This approach works wonderfully with those in the land grouped under the ‘myth of the rational voter’ (cf. Bryan Caplan).

The Second Wave of Covid-19 (updated 15apr20)

George Rebane

[A rewrite of this piece for broader audiences - 'The big decision and the second wave' - appeared in the 18apr20 online and print editions of The Union.]

As we start to turn the corner on the initial wave of C19 infections sweeping the land, people are already talking about the second wave and what it may look like after we carefully restart the economy.  I did some noodling with Epidyne about what a second wave might look like as it takes another cut at us in California.  Our state is thought to have had a large TBD fraction of people who already became immune last fall and early this year through asymptomatic infections.  This is plausible from what we now know about the 2019 timeline of the Wuhan virus.

This assumption goes a long way to explaining why California’s infection, morbidity, and mortality numbers are so low, especially since we are one of the major Asia gateways into the US.  The bottom line here is that we in our state already had developed a high level of herd immunity (q.v.) when the real C19 hit the country in early February of this year.

I ran a number of scenarios of a second wave using the latest CDC max reproduction rate of 2.6 which gets whittled down as herd immunity grows.  And everyone now says that the Germans have calculated the most accurate death rate of 0.4% of the infected for developed country healthcare systems.  Using these numbers on California’s 40M population, and letting the immunity fraction from the first wave vary from 0% (no one became immune) as an unrealistic bookend, to 50%, which most epidemiologists now think is closer to truth, I generated the infected population curves shown below.

The Epidyne model (here) illustrates the highly non-linear nature of epidemic spread experienced in populations with various levels of herd immunity.  We see the impact of the disease weakening as the percent immune increases in a fairly orderly way with little change in the second wave’s onset and its duration.  This begins to markedly change as the immune percentage passes 30%.  Then we see the curves flattening out with a delayed onset and a longer duration.  Keep in mind that the infected cohort is made up of the asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and those requiring professional medical attention.  The latter comprising of about 10% of the infected according to the latest figures.  It is also from this cohort that we derive the mortality numbers.

The table below shows the maximum infected, the maximum hospital load, and the number deceased for the second wave as a function of the initial percent immune.

From the graph above we see that the duration of the wave for the lower immunities is about 2.5 months, and for immunities above 40% the epidemic’s onset is later, of lower intensity, and lasts about 3 to 3.5 months.

We must also note that the above numbers don’t reflect any imposition of a second statewide quarantine.  Were we to take a more reasoned look at what kind of second wave we would have, I would agree with those who calculate that California’s immunity percentage would be very close to 50% coming out of the first wave that includes the cohort of pre-first wave immunities.  Of course, if a second widespread quarantine is imposed that impacted proportionately the uninfected vulnerable and immune populations, then the intensity curves would all be lower and also more spread out.

Important in all this policy making is the ability to conduct immunity (antibody/antigen) testing on random samples from the state.  I have extensively discussed testing previously (here and here), and also introduced readers to Epidyne (here).  And when all is said and done on running these numbers, it sure looks like we should be ready soon to loosen the reins on our economy, and then not be too apprehensive about the so-called second wave - it will be quite manageable.

[update]  So what all should policy makers actually consider as they wrestle with the decision of when and how to reopen the economy?  Items definitely to include involve and understanding of the scenarios I have illustrated above regarding second wave infections.  (We assume they have access to spread models at least as powerful as Epidyne.)  But before that, one needs to take a measure of the situation in answering the question, what is and/or should be the immunity level in the target population I’m considering opening up.  From above we saw that the immunity level should be somewhere north of 40% so that herd immunity can kick in and reduce the severity of the second wave after we have again started doing business in the land.

That decision will again involve another round of testing a random sample drawn from such a population.  This time the test will be for the presence of immunizing antibodies/antigens, and these tests will also have their own levels reliability expressed in their sensitivities and specificities.  More formally these are respectively the probabilities of test positive given the presence of the ‘antis’, here P⁺. and test positive when no ‘antis’ are present, here P^-.  I explained the whole process here, for those needing a review.

The remainder of this update has a couple of squigglies in it that makes it easier to read from this pdf - Download SecondWaveUpdate 

[15apr20 update]  The Epidyne second wave results shown above are now beginning to be described by prominent contagious disease experts and epidemiologists in interviews and columns that forebode ill if C19 returns to a population with a still WIP herd immunity.  They are now doing some Monday morning quarterbacking on the governments' policies of people quarantining, sequestering themselves at home, and social distancing on their infrequent forays to gather their necessaries (more here). Their arguments about “unintended consequences”, of course, make sense.  All epidemics burn themselves out primarily through the beneficial action of herd immunity among the survivors of the disease (else they just kill everyone infected).  But herd immunity is inhibited by premature and too comprehensive and longlasting quarantines.  This means that once the people are ‘released’, any residual contagious agents will necessarily reinfect and start the disease cycle all over again.  I have illustrated that with the Epidyne spread model, generating a number of epidemic return scenarios as a function of various levels of herd immunity being in place when society was opened up again.

Scattershots – 22feb20 (updated 25feb20)

George Rebane

Surprise! – school costs are projected to double their budgeted income.  Well, not really.  It’s only a surprise to our progressives who either skipped or failed Econ 101.  The 22feb20 Union cites a report by WestEd that projects the coming “silent recession” in our schools (here) This was known to most of us years ago (2008) when its first ignored signs became apparent.  The schools will “likely be running deficits soon because of factors like the rising rate of pensions, special education costs, and rising staff costs, along with the price of health care.”  With state socialism running wild and teachers’ unions sitting in the catbird seat, whoulda thought?  In Nevada County we are holding emergency meetings at the school district “in an attempt to get ahead of the possible (?!) problems.”  And guess what is the big unfunded gorilla in the room – can you spell ‘CalSTRS’?  As usual, no one is discussing cutting the schools’ ridiculous cost structure, but only how best to raise taxes to pay off the new bonds that must be floated to cover the deficits.

The mood of California’s disgruntled Democrats is correctly captured by our beloved liberal cartoonist Bob Crabb.  You see, they already control the state with an electorate of gimmes having voted in the Sacramento super-majorities, and a double dummy governor who’s competing with Bernie for the Time's cover picture of the ‘Socialist of the Year’.  But there’s a bit of northern California that still remains mostly Republican and conservative, and that must not be tolerated to complete a true-Blue, one-party state – any vestige of remaining representation of the knuckle draggers in Sacramento must be purged.  And Mr Crabb is up to promoting that in his cartoon which I filched from the pages of the 22feb20 Union.

The fair share between pay and profits, that is the consuming question for America’s socialists, who, of course, know the answer.  Jon Sindreu in the 22feb20 WSJ gives the issue a workmanlike airing (here).  There he points out that “there has been a lot of attention paid to how much of national income goes to profits instead of workers’ pay. Labor’s share of gross domestic product remained close to a postcrisis low in 2019 amid record corporate earnings, according to the latest U.S. data.”  And the stability between pay and profits during most of the 20th century started tilting toward profits, which predictably has gotten up the dander of our ‘workers, throw off your chains’ leftwing.  A deeper look reveals no untoward imbalance, save that since 1980 competition has forced industries to consolidate, and technology started replacing labor’s share of productivity contributions.  This, of course, has caused labor’s share of GDP to decrease since the remaining jobs are tending to a dumbbell shaped distribution of pay, with the big hump consisting of lower wage ‘commodity level’ jobs.  If we want to maintain and grow our QoL, then start thinking again of systemic unemployment, universal basic income, and perhaps even non-profit service corporations.

[23feb20 update]  One of the Democrat Big Lies is that Russia is backing Trump in 2020.  This not only a lie, but blatant idiocy for anyone to believe such tripe.  We have pointed out how Trump’s walk is what people should focus on, not his public talk about Russia which is firm yet relatively mild-mannered.  For those snuffies unfamiliar with public/private negotiations, this is what you do to maximize your position in deal making – talk softly while wielding a big stick.  As John Hinderaker explains in ‘You Don’t Need a Spy to Know Which Way the Russian Wind Blows’ - "Donald Trump is anathema to the rulers of Russia. Not only has he armed the Ukrainians, he has re-invigorated NATO by insisting that members take an interest in their own defense; stood up to and badly wounded Russia’s key ally, Iran; overseen an expansion and strengthening of American armed forces; and, most important, encouraged fracking and other development of U.S. oil and gas resources, which has kept down the global price of oil. … It is blindingly obvious that the Russians would prefer any Democrat to President Trump. All of the Democrats have promised to limit U.S. production of oil and gas, which no doubt sounds like pure insanity to Putin but is music to his ears. Equally important, they all vow to shrink America’s armed forces and never to use them under any foreseeable circumstances. And they all would pursue a soft line toward Iran." (more here and H/T to correspondent)

[24feb20 update]  There is a Sanders Silver Lining.  What many of us have been saying for years about the true social and governance objectives of the Democratic Party are now visible to all as the curtain has been pulled aside to reveal their true aims for a fundamentally transformed America.  It is clear that communism is the ultimate goal, and proto-communist policies, should Team Bernie et al prevail, are the first steps.  But first, our guns have got to go as the government’s guns come out to make us heel.

[25feb20 update]  Google full-page ad in the 25feb20 WSJ touting their cloud services has the banner – The Home Depot is solving for empowering doers to get more done.  Huh??!

From the immortal Robert Burns “O, wad some Power the giftie gie us/ To see oursels as others see us! …"  - Since George W. Bush I have been writing about the fundamentalist hijacked Republican Party. It is 2020 and the GOP Jihad continues on with the new moniker of the Trump Party. … Leaderless and adrift, the far-right hoards of white Republican religious purists are still trying to purge the country of decency, morality and moderation instilling their brand of anti-abortion and anti-immigration and science denial. … I understand the necessity of an opposition, but the Republicans are completely AWOL, in that regard. The Republican Party is becoming a group of fringe right-wingers lacking the moderation of centrists. Get ready for the Trump-Republican 2020 campaign of lies as they play to the wealthy, religious and conservatives. What a god-awful mess. May they self-destruct.  Ron Lowe, Nevada City (from Letters in the 25feb20 Union)

And in the same vein from Thomas Elias’ ‘California carrying the national economy’ , we learn that instead of all the growing problems the state has been having under decades of Democrat rule with workers and companies leaving, highest taxes/fees/regulations, welfare capital of the nation, illegals and gimmes arriving, and crap-infested cities full of indigent homeless and addicts living in the streets, and … .  All of that is wrong, and California is really “the envy of the nation” as we were told the other day by Governor Goofy Gavin.  Since the state has a couple or three counties that are home to major corporations raking gazillions of revenues from manufactories and server centers all over the world, all is well – better than well, it’s just peachy.  When county GDPs are tallied like that, then it’s easy to see how places like India and China can also have several small concentrations of outfits that produce enormous wealth which doesn’t accrue to the surrounding countryside where people are in dire straits.  Don’t know whether the arch leftwing columnist Elias is a bit teched, but he’s sure betting that his readers are.

Democracy Destroys the Electoral College

George Rebane

[This is the addended transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 19 February 2020.  An edited version of this was published in the 7mar20 Union (here).]

The nation’s Left is again demanding that the country should give up its republican roots and become a democracy – something which our Founders warned us against and were careful to avoid when they gave us a constitutional republic, with Ben Franklin’s admonition “… if you can keep it.”  It’s doubtful that those fine points of civics and governance are still taught in our public schools.  What’s happening today in Virginia gives evidence of that.

Now that Democrats completely control what used to be a battleground state, their House of Delegates have “passed a bill that aims to do an end run around the Electoral College.”  When the governor signs it into law, Virginia will become the latest state to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.  The compact calls for each member state to award all of its electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in the national election – 50 plus percent will do the job, leaving the other 50 minus percent voiceless in a presidential election.

Virginia ratifying the compact will bring to 209 votes in the Electoral College that will be apportioned by a democratic majority, a compact that has already been enacted into law by 15 states and the District of Columbia, and is pending in all the other states.  When the total ratified reaches 270 out of the total of 538 Electoral College votes, we will have effectively done away with the Electoral College, and will then elect our president by plebiscite.  This major step toward a pure democracy will mark a dangerous milestone in the regress of America’s governance from what the Founders bequeathed us. (more here) and here)

Scattershots – 21jan20 (updated 27jan20)

George Rebane

RL Crabb is prominent in today’s (21jan20) Union lambasting AB5, the latest socialist outrage from Sacramento. (more here)  This piece of dreadful anti-work legislation has finally caught enough of our liberal artsy-fartsy crowd to also get them squawking – less known, AB5 impacts at least as many of California's high-tech STEM consultants and freelancers.  Our cartoonist friend Bob Crabb’s distress (here) puts paid on what most of us have known about his true ideological colors – for shur he ain’t no middle-roader.  Regardless of his ire against the state’s Democrats – it’s akin to my ire against the state’s Republicans, but I don’t pretend to be a mid-roader – he cannot countenance the other side, even in the face of AB5.  “I also do not agree with those who want to steer clear of partisan politics. This bill is 100% Democrat. It was written by an assemblywoman who curses like a sailor and dismisses us as whiners who are too dense to understand how fortunate we are to have her party looking out for our well-being.  It passed on a straight party line vote. It was signed by a governor who just dedicated millions of dollars to enforcing it.  California Democrats believe they have little to fear from the riffraff at the bottom tier of workers. We are, after all, musicians, journalists, community theaters, and cartoonists. What are we going to do? Vote for Republicans? Ha ha ha!”  As you can see, regardless of the years of collectivist crap flowing from our Democrat legislature, Bob would not change his vote to give us bottom tier riffraff a chance to sell our services as we choose – a few eggs have yet to be cracked and sacrifices have to be made.

California leavin’ should be the title of a new musical lament for all those folks heading out of state.  But there’s enough of us disgruntled Golden Staters to take and remake the places where we land and put down new stakes.  An example is Star, Idaho, a small town near where one of our dear departed California expats and RR readers now lives.  Star’s population has more than doubled in the last ten years as couples like JT and Mary Jo Turnipseed (their real name, honest!) left SoCal and moved in to experience small town living at its best.  Well, no more.  “Now Star is grappling with some of the same problems the Turnipseeds left California to escape. The town’s main drag, where ranchers once drove their cattle, is clogged with traffic during rush-hour commutes. Sprawling subdivisions have sprouted up around farmland, as have new chain stores. The median home price has more than doubled to nearly $400,000 since 2010.” (more here)  The most amazing thing to me is still the utter blindness of our states overwhelming population of leftwing loonies who deny that any of this exodus is going on.  It mirrors exactly their grossly distorted perception of the realworld which is their daily drink from the lamestream.  For them, another sip of that Kool-Aid, and all’s right with the world.

The Harvard Reorganization Plan

George Rebane

Harvard has a plan to deconstruct our republic and rebuild it in their own image.  To launch a national dialogue on this initiative, the university’s prestigious law school has published ‘Pack the Union: A Proposal to Admit New States for the Purpose of Amending the Constitution to Ensure Equal Representation’ which we shall here call the Harvard Reorganization Plan (HRP).  For those unfamiliar, Harvard University is today perhaps the best endowed ($40.9B as of FY2019) premier academe of all things ideologically progressive and the fount of America’s leftwing thought.  For our liberals it is the mother temple of correct forward thinking – as declared in its motto ‘Veritas’, the institution publishes its works on stone tablets.

In the HRP, on their most recently issued tablet, their legal academics make an extensive and well-documented case for yet the most fundamental transformation, if not the complete abrogation, of what has been the United States of America.  This is a bottom up plan that will rip out by the roots our “republic, if you can keep it.”  The HRP proposes a devilishly convoluted route to replace our present form of governance with a pure democracy; using the leaks, holes, and soft-points of our otherwise carefully constructed Constitution to first create a minimum of 96 solidly leftwing new states out of what is now the District of Columbia – since DC is federal territory, this will require only a simple majority in the Senate to achieve.  Then with a newly constituted hard-Left Congress, the Constitution will be pro forma amended beyond recognition so that the result is the birth of a new United Socialist States of America (USSA).

On its first reading, HRP puts forward some very persuasive arguments for the founding of a new USSA.  But it is persuasive in a blindered and blinding manner.  And all of these arguments pivot on the siren song of “equal representation” - ‘one person, one vote’ - to be applied in a reorganized America to as many public policy decisions as possible.  The promise here is replicating the California template wherein cowardly politicians, rather than assume political risk and vote openly in the legislature, will throw the decision to a manipulable electorate so that the desired result can be credited to ‘the peehpul’.   Today the whole nation can see the fruits of that kind of a legislative dodge.

The purpose of this commentary is to invite readers to collect in one place their thoughts on the recommendations in the HRP and other similar plans that call for changing our democratic republic into a democracy.  In the sequel I list some numbered assertions, some of which I offer axiomatically, others as propositions, and perhaps a few as provable theorems.

1. The natural world (universe) has evolved over the billions of years to be an unequal, lumpy, more-here-than-there, highly discriminating, and therefore marvelously complex place that gave rise to equally unequal critters like Homo Sapiens Sapiens.
2. We are each identifiably unique in almost every dimension of being and doing that we can imagine. Therefore, if thrown into the same cauldron, we sort ourselves out very quickly as to those who can and will do what is the best, most, and/or quickest.  And we observe this as an attribute we share with all the more highly developed animals – the smarter the critter, the more differentiable it is from its fellows.
3. The belief in and the enforcement of unexamined and unqualified equality is unnatural, and gives rise to societies that cannot generate the wealth required to maintain a beneficial quality of life for any of its members, including the controlling elites.
4. Humans don’t know how to purposely manage large-scale, complex systems affected by random influences. While we can impact their serendipitous responses, we cannot beneficially control their behavior.  Mankind’s attempt to do so has always resulted in large-scale misery that precedes tragedy.  Central control of such systems requires much more knowledge than we have been able to assemble.  The eternal hubris of the Left is to ignore and/or deny this truth.
5. Nature’s answer to this conundrum is to distribute knowledge and control to the lowest levels (of agency found) in large systems. The leaf knows neither the nature nor purpose of the tree, and needs know neither to do a good job as a leaf, paying attention only to its immediate environment.  Even Rousseau and Marx caught a whiff of such an Elysian state of being in their philosophies.
6. Our Founders were astute students of human nature. They knew the histories of failed democracies, and to a man, sought to shield their new nation from a similar short-sighted fate.  Hence, the immortal words of Ben Franklin when asked what the Constitutional Convention had wrought – ‘A republic if you can keep it’, clearly indicating that future generations’ ability to sustain their bequest was to be western civilization’s Great Experiment of governance.
7. No reasonable person would argue that our Constitution is the perfect foundational document for a republic. Its flaws were already recognized when it was still being hammered on the anvil.  That’s why the Constitution was issued with built-in mechanisms by which it could be amended in a deliberate and orderly manner as new times would give rise to new values and thinking.  There is nothing deliberate or orderly in the manner HRP calls for rewriting the Constitution.
8. Bryan Caplan’s The Myth of the Rational Voter – Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies (2007) captured and quantified the recent experience in sustaining our Republic subjected to the vicissitudes of an electorate composed overwhelmingly of those who won’t or can’t grasp the issues about which they must choose. The results of this monumental study would not have surprised our Founders.
9. I submit that, were the measures outlined in the HRP to be initiated by the next Democrat controlled Congress, there would arise a spontaneous nationwide armed resistance to ‘save the Constitution’ and maintain the status quo. In short, reasoned national dialogue would break down in a similar manner experienced during the years before the War Between the States.

More later, based on our prolific and deep-thinking readers, and as other thoughts will undoubtedly arise in the fullness of time, I will add them to the list with attribution.

The Advent of Government's Mega-overreach

George Rebane

Those who pay attention were made aware that Sacramento is next preparing a bill that would tax companies doing business in California on the basis of the difference between their CEO and median worker pay. (more here)  Portland already passed such a tax regulation last year.  Now you may ask, what business is it of government, or any non-owner of a private company, as to what should be their pay scale.  What’s the reasonable basis for government to reach into a company’s operating policy and impose punitive measures if it doesn’t do what politicians and government bureaucrats dictate?  Actually, there is no reasonable basis for this, nor need there be as long as government threatens the use of their gun.

What should concern all of us right-leaners is what comes next if the court challenges to this new super-stupid law fail.  There is nothing then to stop government from constructively appropriating private corporations – first slowly, then rampantly - by extending their operational dicta to everything from how many products of what kind companies should make, how much of a ‘fair market’ price they should charge for them, what should be the pay for specific jobs, …, the list is endless once this tax regimen is accepted.  Companies would still bear the full measure of risk for such operating policies enforced from on high.  Such a mega-overreach of private businesses is exactly what Hitler did in the 1930s to extend the cold hand of national socialism over Germany.  (Our already left-leaning media didn’t then know how to report that because Stalinist communism had already appropriated all production in the USSR.)

The likelihood of this scenario being the actual death knell of open market capitalism in America is heightened by the lack of involvement and critical thinking skills of our electorate.  And here I’m not talking about those of today’s hard-leftists (like those who frequent RR comment streams); what should concern us all are those millions of mid-roaders and independents now inured to years of lamestream propaganda – those whose socio-political ideology is at best a soft mush that can be re/shaped by the most recent socialist slogan.

AB5 is a related super-stupid California law that has become the legislative analogue of swiss cheese given all the exclusions that it is in the process of incorporating.  We covered its introduction in ‘California’s latest dumb to dumber’.  And to remind readers that stupid governance in California is not restricted to any one sector, we brought SB419 to readers’ attention in ‘SB419 – Stupid becomes stupider’.  Ms Terry McLaughlin in the 16jan20 Union (here) gives a more complete treatment of the effects of AB5 since its passage.  I could go on to also review the impact of SB50 on local control of planning and restrictions on rent increases, but there's enough here to again communicate the ongoing disaster that is Sacramento.

It will be most interesting to read the leftwing's apologetics for all this insanity in California, because we know they are true believers in whatever comes out of Sacramento (fashioned in their image), even if they don’t have the ability to present a rational defense of their beliefs.

SB419 – Stupid becomes stupider

George Rebane

There is no lower bound to progressive stupidity.  This truth is again confirmed and demonstrated to boot by SB419 signed into law by our Gov Nutjob.  Adding to all the other problems with our progressively punished public education in California, the new law installs ‘the willfully defiant classroom’ into our schools.  It legalizes “willful defiance”, which until now has been a reason for teachers and principals to impose disciplinary action and suspension when 6-8^th grade students willfully defy teachers and staffers in our schools.  The law effectively removes the ‘willful defiance’ clause as a violation from our education code EC48900(k).

Actually, it’s even worse than that.  In its broader interpretation, the new law makes it legal for such kids to defy any adult, including their parents who will now be in violation when they attempt to discipline their unruly little darlins, or any kids for that matter.  The real reason for this stupid response from Sacramento is that suspended kids don’t generate cash for the schools which get certain kinds of government funding based on attendance.  A quirk in the law is that the schools may still use EC48910 to send the little idiots somewhere else, but not home.  One possible destination will be the new “intervention room” appropriately staffed by people the kids can ignore and raise hell.  I have no idea how that will work out, and neither do the pinheads in our legislature led by our paramount pinhead Newsom. (more here and here)

And the real pinheads are our neighbors, those who year after year vote for ever more ignorant and ideologically sclerotic legislators.  Recall, the plan was to first make them into double dummies through our public schools.  That has worked, and now they are compliant nebbishes who get their daily marching orders from the lamestream media.

Scattershots – 2jan20 (updated 4jan20)

George Rebane

Google’s AI does breast cancer diagnoses.  “Google’s health research unit said it has developed an artificial-intelligence system that can match or outperform radiologists at detecting breast cancer, according to new research. But doctors still beat the machines in some cases. … The AI system outperformed the average radiologist in determining whether the women would develop breast cancer.”, as reported in the 2jan20 WSJ (here).  The AI’s performance stats are impressive, and then comes the insane part.  Due to bureaucratic and regulatory concerns which essentially make ‘perfect’ be the enemy of the ‘good’, the AI “isn’t yet ready for clinical use”.  The correct answer is that it is more than ready for clinical use, because there is no reasonable downside to its use in tandem with practicing radiologists.  Since the algo already outperforms humans, it can be introduced in phases with various practitioners all over the country while research continues toward the elusive perfect.  Here is another problem for which we should always look to government as being its probable first cause, and government’s stand-down as being the most obvious first approach to a solution.

Does “Japanification” loom in America’s future?  The answer may well be YES.  In addition to some bad fiscal and monetary policies over the last 30 years, it’s Japan’s aging demographics that have put a stifling curse on its economy.  We have some disturbing similarities – “Developed economies that are maturing that have demographic headwinds are going to face many of the same things Japan has been facing over decades. … Like Japan, the U.S. has an aging population and a concentration of industry among a small number of giant businesses. In 2019, U.S. interest rates fell sharply, sparking serious discussion in markets, perhaps for the first time, of whether long-term rates could fall to zero or even turn negative. That already has happened in Japan and in much of Europe.” (more here)  Yes, Europe with its heavily socialistic governments have even more concentration of their industries (c.f. corporatism) and are already suffering the early stages of Japanification.   Progressive governments’ hip-level response to such economic headwinds is to turn the screws on for more central planning and control with disastrous results as have occurred recently in Chile (see below).  Our Democratic leftists have that and more in store for us should they increase their control of the levers of power. 

A Progressive’s ‘Common Ground’

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts."  Daniel Patrick Moynihan

George Rebane

Sierra Business Council CEO Steven Frisch took to task my criticism of Terry McAteer’s Union column (here) in which he glossed over the real problems that California has under Democrat leadership.  Along with McAteer, Frisch also appears to be blind to California socialists’ homegrown catastrophes, and counsels those who would point them out to “stop acting like a bunch of babies and work together."

Scattershots - 10dec19 (updated 16dec19)

George Rebane

Factory workers now starting to require college degrees – ‘American Factories Demand White-Collar Education for Blue-Collar Work’.  We saw this coming some years back in these pages and described the process in some graphic detail (here).   Given the acceleration of technology in general and AI in particular, that was not a hard prognostication for those of us in the field.  The million plus manufacturing jobs added since the recession are tilted definitely to those with “the most complex problem-solving skills”.  Numeracy as a requirement is understood, and that’s just the start of advanced skill sets required on today’s factory floors.  Correspondingly, the jobs requiring the least skills have declined during this same interval. (more here) 

University of California is sued by leftwing activists to drop SAT and ACT admissions tests. (here)  From the battery of available standardized tests for high schoolers, SAT and ACT both remain as the most reliable predictors of college and post-college success.  But this is discriminatory according to the plaintiffs because “According to College Board data from this year, 45% of white students who took the SAT in California scored at least a 1200 out of a possible 1600, and 55% of Asian students did, compared with only 9% of African-American students and 12% of Hispanic students.”  So going along with the remainder of the Democrats’ program to destroy America’s public education institutions (more here), we now have a full court press on our colleges and universities to drop academic merit as an admission requirement.  Instead, institute the double-dummy quota system so everyone can get a college degree.  (Why not make it a civil right and have government mail everyone a bachelor’s degree on their 18^th birthday?) Digest this news in light of the previous item above.

Scattershots – 29nov19 (updated 30nov19)

George Rebane

Recent correspondence with Russ Steele - astute observer of the human condition, especially in Washington DC and Sacramento – brings to mind some thoughts about two particular items.

Gov Gavin Newsome confirms his scumbag politician credentials by issuing an executive order “meant to sharpen the state’s focus – and its spending – on global warming.”  Basically, his new meddling in California’s already maximally meddled public funds is going to redirect new tax receipts and fees from fuel and vehicle registrations on the progressive environmental agenda to further punish California’s economy.   He is bamboozling Californians by not using the money to fix and maintain our state’s dilapidated roadways, and he’s reaching into the drastically underfunded government employee pension funds (CalPERS, CalSTRS, UC) to induce them to further neglect their mandate  to max investment returns by redirecting existing funds to vehicles that serve the progressive propaganda narratives.  These are some of the many ongoing ‘bait and switch’ uses for directed taxes that we have been suffering from years of Democrat controlled Sacramento.  (there's more in the paywalled SacBee) 

Michelle Obama presidential chatter ascending. (more here)  The Dems are more than desperate with their clown-car load of unwinnable candidates who daily recite and sing socialist sonnets and paeans that promise to enrich the nation’s envious – those of us who are short on education, marketable skills, money, and/or gumption.  So from the wings we have had other prominent Democrat hopefuls start throwing their hats into the ring – Bloomberg, Steyer, Patrick, … - with high hopes that the DNC and Team Pelosi will pull the plug on the clown-car and offer voters a more sane looking and centrist Democrat in November.  And then there’s Michelle.  From my perch, it is hard to identify a more unqualified and unattractive candidate for president from the longer list of still sidelined Democratic personages on the national scene.  Here is a kept woman with absolutely no accomplishments to her name.  Well, maybe two.  When wife of a rising state senator, she was placed into a hospital administration job doing ‘critical’ work for $300K a year.  It was so critical, that when she left for greener pastures on Pennsylvania Avenue, no one was hired to replace her.  And then there’s her famously bust school lunch program that crashed and burned when she was First Lady.  Yet the Dems may still consider the American electorate fundamentally stupid enough to vote for her on name recognition alone, if for nothing else than relief from alternatives such as Sanders, Warren, …, and, of course, ol’ uncle silver-tongue Joe.

[30nov19 update]  Socialists are systemic liars.  They succeed in their destruction of lands and economies only because they dangle what seems as an attractive ‘easy way out’ to the huddled and great unwashed who can always be induced to yearn for something for nothing.  Today these socialist scumbags, concentrated in the leftmost wing of the Democratic Party, are floating more free-money plans than their constituents can count.  They point to the European model and make it all look like a slam-dunk as soon as they’re voted into office.  Overwhelmingly, most of these voters know nothing of the EU’s socialist goings on.  They wholeheartedly believe Democrat candidates who “insist that America could afford a European-style welfare state if only it taxed the rich more heavily.”  However, today “Europe’s beleaguered middle class knows better.”  The bottom line, as demonstrated time and again by OECD data, is that the middle class always pays.  Why?  Because that’s where the money is; the rich don’t have enough and are mobile when you start raping them.  And when the successful leave, the pie shrinks, and governments wind up trying to wring milk out of turnips.  To give a hint of their desperation, the EU governments max tax rates at north of 50% which kick in at the workers’ median income levels.  To that are added all kinds of other “social insurance contributions” topped off with a very regressive VAT of around 21% on ALL consumer goods.  On top of that there are federal real estate taxes that heavily impact people trying to retire and the young attempting to get into their own homes.  And the most hidden of all are payroll taxes on employers which reduce the wages for all European workers. (more here)

Schwab is the latest big corporation to climb aboard the Great California Exodus express.  It is now moving its corporate headquarters from fetid and fecal San Francisco to Texas, one of the nation’s go-to states with much lower costs and much lower taxes.  Schwab management saw the Democrat handwriting on the wall twenty years ago, and since 2000 has reduced its California workforce by 90%.  In Texas Schwab’s employees “can have a higher standard of living, and more after-tax income, at the same salaries.”  Meanwhile the once golden state continues spraying its companies across the country like out of a fire hose.  The rush out is now of epic proportions, about which the lamestream is silent, as are the local leftwing lackies in denial.  In the last two years alone, “660 California companies have moved 765 facilities out of the state since 2017. This includes 10 corporations that have moved their headquarters out of San Francisco.”  And guess what, the Democrat dimwits in Sacramento split between not knowing what’s happening, and not knowing what causes it. (here)

‘Does America Still Have a Common Creed?’  Stanford historian and Pulitzerist David M. Kennedy now worries “that the country no longer agrees on a shared identity of purpose.”  Regular readers know that RR has recognized this as a fundamental factor in our approaching Great Divide, and has answered that question with a firm NO!  And in these pages, the collectivist commenters have done their part to confirm that answer which is now even shared by Prof Kennedy and more mainstream academicians and observers of the American scene.  Kennedy repeats our common theme that “societies that have deep, chronic, intergenerational ethnic differences inside the same body politic don’t have particularly encouraging histories. … The basic human instinct to prefer one’s own kind to another is impossible, I think, to eradicate entirely.” Therefore forging “a coherent society out of people who are different in their origins and aspirations is a project, and a fragile one. America’s capacity for absorption has been exceptional.”  And today that capacity is almost all but gone, with no one professing a clue as how we might retrieve it.

Commenter ‘Robert Cross’ (presumably a sackhead) provides an iconic example of today’s leftwinger in the hustings, in addition to a continuing revelation into the workings of the liberal mind.  (His 1052am comment is good place to start.)  His lexicon is limited to what his national lamestream press du jour purports it to be – to most words and concepts he references, he cannot give a cogent definition – and his attempts at logic wander in a nether world that ranges between tortured and non-existent.  For example, he evinces no knowledge of and provides no record of responding to any of the extensive and referenced points my readers and I provide when we meet in the field of ideas - to illustrate, he could have contended any of the above-raised issues, instead he launches a well-oiled personal ad hominem.  We of the conservetarian persuasion are demonstrably constant champions in various degrees of free market capitalism, personal responsibility, entrepreneurial spirit, private property, limited government, textual constitutionalism, individual liberty, and America as a sovereign nation-state and a first-world hegemon.  However, the Robert Crosses of the land, as attested by years of their writings and the policies of their political leadership, daily demonstrate their affinity for the politically correct hive mind, homogenous culture, central planning and control, conformal collective action, ever larger government, identity politics, reducing the private sector, Marxian economics, and the dissolution of America’s sovereignty into a global government.  And the most important aspect of the latter belief system is that it cannot be nor dare it be substantively defended by either its national braintrust or any of its grass roots constituents (as again demonstrated in these pages).

Ruminations – 8nov19 (updated 13nov19)

George Rebane

Progressives moving to suburbs and small towns after they have soiled their coastal urban areas.  Almost half of San Francisco residents now want to leave the shithole city.  These people – overwhelmingly ignorant and anti-capitalist - are like locusts and will also devastate their new homes wherever they land.  The process will not take place overnight, but it will be inexorable, especially if their states continue to adopt the disastrous policies of California.  Nevada County turning ‘blue’ is a poster child for this migration of socialists blind to socialism.   (more here, here, and here)

James Dean lives again through the magic of CGI (computer generated imagery) in an upcoming movie. (here)  In my field we foresaw the resurrection of dead, iconic movie stars almost 40 years ago when then nascent CGI technologies made their way into smaller companies that started servicing the movie and TV industries. (My own company and Hughes Aircraft were the first two west coast companies to establish the then advanced computer graphics labs for defense work.)  The current owners of these movie stars’ estates will have a chance to cash in again.  The impact of such a CGI resurrection on opportunities for today’s myriads of living actors is TBD.

University of California prepares to abandon academic meritocracy.  The Left’s constant push to compromise America’s future is making additional inroads in a field they pretty much have dominated and devastated our educational systems with their ‘social justice’ organizations now threatening to sue UC if it continues to use standardized testing (think SAT and ACT) as a basis for admittance.  As always, these anti-American warriors use the bogus argument that meritocracy discriminates against minorities.  Has anyone taken a walk on a UC campus lately?  Does anyone think that developing any realworld system - inventing an algorithm, writing a program, or building a bridge - will benefit from fewer or incompetent STEM graduates?

‘California’s Disastrous State Illustrates Limits of Progressivism’ writes Victor Davis Hanson in his lates review of how our state has been turned into a third-world wannabe in the hands of the resurrected Socialist Party of America who still use their old name of Democrats.  Unfortunately, the limits of progressivism will be achieved when California becomes a social wasteland toward which it is now accelerating.  And the local idiots still think it's only some obscure foothill codgers who hallucinate about the state's long downfall.

[10nov19 update]  My skepticism about the reality of preventable man-made global warming is nicely summarized in this article written by climate scientist Dr Jay Lehr.  It incorporates most of the factors that I have addressed over the years about the global warming issues as part of Rebane Doctrine.  (H/T to reader)

[13nov19 update]  Apropos to the above update, another Democrat has outed a previously hushed truth about the public positions and policies of progressives.  Sen Mazie Hirono (D-HI) publicly admonished Americans “to fundamentally change the way they think about climate change” – more specifically, she urged that people “believe in climate change as though it’s a religion, it’s not a science.” (more here)  This, of course, has been a major Rebane Doctrine tenet about preventable manmade global warming in these pages for years.

‘America’s Schools (continue to) Flunk’

George Rebane

Speaking of ownership of public policies and government operations, the Democrats own America’s public schools.  They have had title for fifty years to what our children are taught, as they are subjected to somewhere from 12 to 16 years of leftwing ideologies, by unionized teachers and administrators who have laid waste to our school systems from coast to coast.

RR has carried the torch for school choice and public school reform during its entire existence.  I have worked with local public schools here and in SoCal to see firsthand who is doing what to whom, and witnessed their resulting work product.  In this regard, our local schools’ performance, along with what has been happening in California over the last decades, is faithfully recorded in the longitudinal data archive of the National Center for Educational Statistics, and they aren’t pretty.

Today we have the results from the 2019 National Assessment of Educational Progress, which consist of tests administered to students around the country every two years.  A report on this is found in the 31oct19 WSJ (here) with the tagline, “Despite more spending, test scores fall and the achievement gap grows.”, which about says it all.

Digging into some of the more important results, we find that the smaller cohort of smarter students are pulling away from those not so smart, whose performance continues to degrade.  These latter are prime fodder for the progressive pabulum that extols the virtues of bigger government, more transfer payments, and dunning the existential benefits of individual enterprise, capitalism, and minimally regulated markets.  These cohorts of the poorly educated continue to feed the reliable Democrat voting blocks, whose subsequent existence is denied as they become (unemployed) adults – if you’re an American leftist, what’s not to like?

As examples, only 35% of the country’s fourth graders rated proficient in reading.  Overall math and reading scores are about level, save that the top students’ scores increased slightly less than the drop in the scores of the bottom decile.  The black/white learning gap remains dismally large.

Surprisingly (or not), 4^th grade scores increased only in Mississippi, but the real success story comes from Washington DC where charter school enrollments increased 60% since 2009, much to the chagrin of unionized ‘educators’ who felt the pressure to then increase performance in other public schools.  The unions’ answer to every such report of education deficits is to demand more spending for schools.  But spending increased 15% per pupil between 2012 and 2017 from its already (globally) rate, and the result has been no improvement as cited.  “Spending has been growing at an even faster clip over the last couple of years as government revenue has recovered from the recession.”

California, the state of the double-dummy educators, increased its education spending by $102B (more than 50%!!) since 2013 with absolutely no increase in student performance from its already bottom-barrel lows in the nation.  There it is joined by the other Democrat-dominated states – drumroll please – yes, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey.  Along with California, these states have also raised taxes for schools, all to no avail – the teachers’ and administrators’ pension funds suck up the new cash like a sponge.  The report concludes with – “Much of the money has gone to fund teacher pensions and administrative positions that pad union rolls. Maybe parents should go on strike to demand more accountability from the union-run public school monopoly.”

[Exit assignment - pay attention to the number and content of comments from our liberal readers.]

Sacramento Owns the Blackouts

“Can 40 million suffer third-world electric reliability without a political upheaval?” asks Holman Jenkins, 29oct19 WSJ

George Rebane

Northern Californians have now suffered multiple power blackouts in recent weeks and we are told by many that from here on this may become the new norm for our state – in other words, prepare your life to adopt the daily routines of third world countries where electric power is a sometime thing.  As opposed to all the now usual causes for these outages, ranging from climate change to a rapacious PG&E, I’d like to focus here on these blackouts as political events, and examine the new norm of power outages from that perspective.

Scattershots – 23oct19 (updated 26oct19)

George Rebane

Gov Newsom is outraged about the price of gasoline in California.  He doesn’t understand why current prices in the state are well into the $4/gal range.  In the best wisdom he and his can muster, they all accuse the oil companies for price fixing as the answer – another swig from the ‘capitalism is bad’ bottle satisfies everyone in Sacramento.  None of those dumb schiffs have a clue about CA’s draconian fuel regulations, about our having to make our own gasoline from the one or two refineries that the econuts have not yet purged from the state with the most cars in the nation, about the cap-and-trade (2013) and other anti-CO2 programs we have going in addition to raising gas taxes again in 2018.  We are paying $1.50 more than the country’s median price per gallon.  Now the butt stupid Dems led by Newsom are going to “protect the public” by demanding that the state’s Energy Commission start an investigation on the matter, in addition to promising to launch legal actions against gasoline producers, distributors, and retailers.  (more here)

All this to a constant drumbeat from Sacramento that calls for raising fuel prices so as to drive Californians to ditch their gas-powered cars.  The 23oct19 WSJ reports, “The Governor last month ordered revenue to be redirected from the last gas tax hike, which was supposed to fund highway construction, to projects that ‘reverse the trend of increased fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.’  So Californians in the future can look forward to paying more to drive on deteriorating roads as they head to homes without electricity due to blackouts. How long will it take California voters to figure out that these are problems made in Sacramento by politicians?” (emphasis mine)  The Democrats feel sanguine that the answer is ‘never’ since they have assured that teaching the necessary critical thinking skills to their voter base were banished from our schools almost two generations ago.  

‘Apoplectic Democrats’.  A reader and correspondent who long-ago predicted the ‘Advent of Michelle’ (also known as 'The Second Coming') is now chortling in his beer.  The more centrist Dems (yes, there still are some of them remaining on the DNC) are going into panic mode about the make-up of their candidate clown car, and more so because their grass roots constituents have drunk the Kool-Aid about the likely ones from whom they will choose their nominee.  (For confirmation, read the progressive’s comments in these pages.)  So, since Hillary continues to blow her remaining tires, the DNC leaders are casting their eye on the former first lady who has a very recognizable last name.

Yesterday’s NYT and New Yorker had “articles about how centrist and establishment Democrats are apoplectic over what is happening in the Democratic Primaries. (more here)  Biden is fading, mentally and politically. He’s hanging on for dear life to a presumption coming into the primaries that he had what it takes, but he doesn’t. Bernie and Warren are viewed as gateway drugs to general election disaster. (For a brutal takedown of Warren’s electoral chances from a progressive view, read Why Criticize Warren? in Current Affairs.)  The others in the race all have problems, from stone cold boring to non-starters. Kamala Harris is the biggest disappointment, there’s no there there.  And there’s one person they both note who could walk away with the nomination, but doesn’t appear to want it.”  (standing ovation please)  Enter Michelle.

'Gentlemen, start your generators!' is the word from our politically punitive PG&E.  Power shut-offs are scheduled to start this (23oct19) afternoon.

[24oct19 update]  The relentless spread of dumbth in America is picking up speed.  These pages have documented the destruction of our country’s public education in the hands of progressive teachers unions and liberal politicians working hard to maintain their plantations of minority constituents over the last half century.  A just-released poll shows us that the First Amendment and free speech are in the sights of Millennials (“the dumbest generation”), and to a lesser extent supported by GenXers and Baby Boomers. (more here) Nearly 60% of Millennials think that the Constitution “goes too far in allowing hate speech in modern America”.  It should now be amended so that “government should be able to take action against newspapers and TV stations that publish content that is biased, inflammatory, or false”.  These are people who have passed way beyond the tipping point of being able to sustain our democratic republic.  All this confirms that the latest generations have absolutely no understanding of the concept of free speech, and will gladly vote themselves into tyranny. 

[25oct19 update] To confirm statewide assessments (starting with Gov Newsom) that PG&E management continues to be incompetent and corrupt, we read the report of the San Diego power company (SDG&E) that years ago anticipated the potential damage to their infrastructure from weather and fire.  They responded by burying major transmission lines, and reconfigured their distribution network into smaller clusters that could be more surgically shutdown should the need arise.  PGE, on the other hand, neglected all of this, paid their execs handsomely, successfully lobbied politicians and the PUC to turn a blind eye to their malfeasance, and is now forced to execute consumer shutdowns over large areas in which only a minuscule part experiences ‘high’ winds, the overwhelming remainder experiencing dead calm to light airs.  Meanwhile, we in the foothills await yer another blackout starting tomorrow.

Recalling Governor Newsom

George Rebane

California’s Governor Gavin Newsom has turned out as expected, an atrocious chief executive who has now signed a spate of bills into law that is taking the state ever lower in personal freedoms, property rights, and the ability to conduct business.  One of most destructive to enterprises, both for- and non-profits, is SB5, which totally restructures the ability to work as a consultant, and for companies to hire such temporary and part time talent.  The list from gun rights to consultants is filled with more legal and regulatory chuckholes than you can count thanks to our governor working hand in glove with our socialist legislature.

Many of us believe it’s time to recall Gavin Newsom, and there is a significant groundswell militating for such an event (more here).  Nevada County Republican Chairman Bob Hren sent out the following information about where you can go to sign the recall petition.

====

There are now four locations in Grass Valley to sign this recall petition.  Do so if you have not yet signed it!  All business are open from Tuesday thru Saturday.

Mustang Firearms, 10893 Alta St.

The Range, 13235 Grass Valley Ave, GV 

The Hunter's Blind, 671 Maltmn Dr. #1, GV

Harrington & Baldwin, mining equipment supply company, 470 E. Main St., GV

And, here is a map showing petition locations and events state-wide if you have friends and relatives elsewhere that wish to sign. 

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1I8qpxC6YdrOc3mfJeK_-A1k7tlVvgdIQ&ll=39.22583449859598%2C-120.95512660659625&z=11

This map may not show some of the latest locations, so check the petition website for more updates.

http://recallgavinnow.com/

 

 

Scattershots – 11oct19 (updated 13oct19)

George Rebane

Nevada City mayor Reinette Senum calls for the “dismantling” of PG&E during the windless Wednesday night protest in front of city hall.  “During the protest Senum questioned PG&E’s decision to shut off power, saying that although she supports the move in cases of extreme weather, it should proactively turn it back on when that weather doesn’t materialize.”  Whadda concept!  She got a bit lost when she advised us that “anything that we’re dependent on – water, power, banks – should be owned by the public.  PGE is already owned by the public about as much as it can be – public company and public monopoly.  But her and my bottom line is that today’s policy of power outages is not a solution to anything.  And did you notice the full page ad by the PGE workers union in today’s Union?  It basically said ‘don’t blame us for the butt stupid political decisions to turn off the power when dangerous winds don’t materialize.’ (more here)

Stupid people should not use wild rivers for recreation.  One woman who spent a night on a rock in the South Yuba from which she could have easily waded ashore, according to the incident commander, required two helicopters and a rescue team to hike in to get her off the rock.  I hope the Washington fire department at least got some training out of that woman’s idiocy.  The rest of her party were no brighter between the ears.  They drove a two-wheeler off road into the brush to their illegal campsite and got their truck stuck.  That was an extra task for the rescue team in order to get them out of there.

Sen Lizzy Warren continues to promise her intent to “remake capitalism”, and is drawing the support of big corporatists who see her socialism as the easy way for big established companies to use government to stifle competition.  It’s a good bet to make on the coming election – all upside, no downside.  An early action to endear them to a lot of people is their current amicus brief filing to SCOTUS opposing the President’s bid to rescind DACA, and maintain that Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act can be used to protect LGBT workers.  None of the worthies running these enterprises remember Lenin’s observation of capitalists ‘who will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.’

Government enforced green policies will grow the economy is the oft-heard progressive refrain on these pages and across the land.  More sober assessments note that, for example, subsidized EVs still make up only 1% of the car market of which 100% of them are sold at a loss to the manufacturers according to the auto industry.  No one here is saying that EVs will not be the desirable mode of personal transport when batteries finally become sufficiently capacious and cheap enough to make such vehicles for a profit that people will buy.  That day is not here yet.

[Later]  Sorry to see FN's gay, progressive afternoon news host Shepard Smith leave the network.  He was one of the major figures in otherwise right-leaning network who was unabashedly leftwing, and thus gave proof that FN was not at all like the lamestream and Dems like to characterize it as the network for xenophobics, homophopics, and neo-Nazis.  Although,  I wish that Smith would have been given an opinion hour to compete with the likes of Hannity and Tucker Carlson, since he almost always slanted his news delivery into an opinion piece more akin to what MSNBC would offer.  Now we have Bret Baier left as the mid-road news stalwart, and Chris Wallace as their liberal senior Sunday pundit doing weekly wrap-ups.

[13oct19 update]  Millennials are fleeing big cities and moving to America’s small towns. (more here)  They’re doing it for all the right reasons, and in many ways imitating Venezuelans fleeing their cities and even their country because of how years of socialism under Chavez and Maduro has brought a once rich land to its knees.  Today one of our most prominent Democrat anti-American congress critters, socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has upped here ante to make the United States into a proto-communist country with her new bill ‘A Place to Prosper Act’ (HR4508) which has become the first legislation for her overall ‘Just Society’ program.  The details of this act promise to pauper the country – that is always the way of the Left, their programs promise prosperity and deliver poverty.  Important to note is that Sen Lizzy Warren endorses AOC’s latest insanity.  (more here and here)

Scattershots – 4oct19 (updated 9oct19)

George Rebane

'My allegation stands true until you prove it false.'  The progressive's approach to debate and judicial process (see also Alinsky and Stalin's show trials).

An anti-American attribute of our Left is their imposition of process over performance in their planning and public policies.  The leftist always seeks to increase government’s scope of control and revenues through legislation/regulation that increases arbitrary requirements and (tax/fee) costs for civil activities, public and private.  This aspect of collectivist ideology is a reliable indicator of the, often hidden, political forces which promote a new law or regulation, i.e. process.  How it affects the performance of individuals or organizations is of secondary importance, or not at all a consideration when corporatists lobby and leftwing politicians legislate.

Gov Newsom’s signing of a new law giving California school districts more power to block charter schools and gratuitously requiring their teachers to become more credentialed (here) is a textbook illustration that supports the above generalized proposition about the Left.  Charter schools across the country have become one of the few remaining bright spots of our public education, and also the bane of leftwing teachers’ unions.  Why?  Because study after study shows that, more often than not, “test scores improve for all students when charters increase their market share.” (more here)  And that’s a no-no for Democrats, especially in dense urban areas like NYC and Boston with large minority populations.  The smarter that minority kids become, the less they tend to accept the ‘benefits’ of staying on the plantation and voting for ever more generous government handouts.

Ruminations – 3oct19 (updated 6oct19)

George Rebane

Former Union publisher Jeff Ackerman writes (here) that Californians today pay and average of $4.02/gal for gasoline while the rest of the country averages at $2.64/gal.  And the escapee to Oregon goes on to point out that all of this is self-inflicted pain that the state’s voters are way past having enough between the ears to change course as Sacramento does its best to accelerate dumb laws/regulations and spread our epidemic across the country.

Gun confiscation was again disguised at the Giffords/March for Our Lives “gun safety forum” in Las Vegas. The Dems are having problems coming together on which or whether to back such confiscation schemes as mandatory buybacks.  Even Moms Demand Action have stopped short of buybacks, which leaves Beto (of AR15/AK47 fame) and the klatch of radical socialists more isolated than ever.  Many of us hope Beto will double down on his ‘Damn right, we’ll take your guns!’

No more masks for Hong Kong protesters.  An old British colonial law is to be invoked to threaten protesters with eventual arrest when they reveal their faces to government operated face recognition software that is being installed all over China today.  Here we are considering doing the same, starting with neighborhood watch cameras for recording night time crime (and anyone else who is on the street after dark).  Soon after, we’ll be fighting daytime crime and questioning people who are recorded being out of their own neighborhoods.  Isn’t technology wonderful?

[4oct19 update]  Volker’s House testimony and release of tweets are the first real disclosures that may seriously put Trump’s tit in a wringer in the ongoing impeachment saga.  Trump is by no means the first president to seek and get foreign aid against political opponents for some horse trading.  But back then it was no big deal and a known prerogative of office.  IMHO, if the sought aid concerns a material revelation about the character of a political opponent, then I don’t oppose such information gathering.  However, I do oppose purchasing fabricated ‘evidence’ of an opponent’s bad character from foreign sources.

[6oct19 update]  Harvard on capitalism (here) - whouda thought?