Rebane's Ruminations

Scattershots – 18dec24

George Rebane

The lopsided lamestream fesses up – not quite.  Those of us not restricted to lamestream media news have always had a more complete picture of what’s going on in the country and the world.  Not so for our leftwing friends.  But now that the election is over and there is nothing to be gained by more lies and omissions that favor the Democrats, the major left-leaning outlets – broadcast, print, online – are starting to fill in their audiences on what has really been going on since 2016.  Led by no less than the NYT, its readers are, for example, finally informed that the millions of illegal aliens who have entered and been loosened in our land has really been due to the border and immigration policies of the Biden/Harris administration.  National columnist Jason Riley fills you in (here) on some more revelations currently being introduced to the dedicated Democrat cadres across the land.  Managed ignorance has always been the forte of socialists worldwide, and in many ways we in America have perfected it.  But don’t hold your breath that this is an enduring epiphany with the lamestream; it’ll be back to business as usual before you know it.

Leftwing universities identified by the Left.  Here’s another awakening going on with our left-leaning thought leaders.  Prominent columnists of the Left like William Galston are writing revelatory essays such as ‘Higher Education Is in Trouble’ in the 18dec24 WSJ, coming right out and saying “schools should curtail DEI and stop taking political sides.”  He admits that “higher education in the U.S. faces a crisis: Its credibility is under attack. The public is increasingly skeptical of university-trained experts and the test-score-based meritocracy that dominates America’s upper middle class.”  But note that he doesn’t specify that only the leftwing upper middle class has been skeptical about testing – the rightwingers of all classes have long been and continue to be supporters of meritocratic metrics.  Galston also has a jaundiced view of the relevant history he claims that led to politicized leftwing universities – the listed faults are all attributable to Republican policy failures.  To his credit, Galston does conclude with three useful prescriptions starting with, “First, they should get their houses in order. They should end mandatory DEI statements for faculty and staff candidates. They should adopt the principle of institutional neutrality … (and) while defending free speech, they should act firmly against activities that impede core academic functions such as teaching, learning and hosting speakers with a range of views.” 

California’s continuing war against privately owned cars advances another notch.  The legislature is pushing through AB413 which will make it illegal to park within 20 feet of a crosswalk.  You’re supposed to believe it’s for “public safety”.  It’s real purpose is to remove thousands of parking spaces from our cities and towns, making an already bad situation worse.  For example, San Francisco will lose 14,000 parking spaces, and about 100,000 statewide.  Californians keep voting for “busybodies (who) want people walking, biking, scooting, or bussing — anything but driving their own cars to their own destinations on their own schedules.”  (more here)

Sandbox - 14dec24

[Union columnist Darrell Berkheimer posted a good piece here in today's (14dec24) edition of the newspaper on 'Our slide toward ignorance' - worth a read.  gjr]

Drones over New Jersey

George Rebane

Kinda reminds you of the classic ‘Moon over Miami’, except hold the romantic part.  The ongoing sightings, now numbering in the hundreds, remain unexplained by our government.  That this has been going on for weeks is unheard of in our nation’s history, yet it is very revealing as to the new attitude that our rulers have for us.  These aircraft are not to be dismissed as something insignificant that we’ll get around to puzzling out some day soon.  All of them are of a size that can carry cameras and munitions – some of the larger ones can carry payloads weighing over 100 lbs, enough for a sizeable nuclear device in addition to some very destructive high explosive warheads.

What is the reason that we have not sent up armed gunships and/or other aircraft that can close with and follow these UAVs to determine their nature, source, and where they will eventually land.  The government mouthpieces dutifully lie to us, a much practiced skill, about not knowing anything about them as they promise to keep “investigating”.  Who among us believes that crap as these things continue to crisscross some of the most critical and densely used airspace in the country?

Why has not a single one of them been shot down yet?  That fact alone makes the whole affair smell to high heaven.  But the larger takeaway from all this is clear – it is the nature of governments in the large to be incompetent, ignorant, and demonstrably evil in the way they treat their citizens.  To their power centers and legions of bureaucrats we are no more than potted plants to be handled and/or dismissed in any way they please.  As always, the solution to this perennial problem of governance is to keep governments small and minimize the amount of money they can collect and spend.  Hopefully the brothers DOGE can push the peanut in that direction.

Great Divide – unclear on the concept (updated)

George Rebane

[Update - A slightly edited version of this post was published here in the 12dec24 online and 13dec24 print editions of The Union.]

The other day I read a newspaper column by a good-hearted commentator who tried to convince readers that there already exists a natural and effective path both sides can travel to heal the historical schism which today separates us and grows wider by the year.  In keeping with the season when families gather to celebrate their holidays, our columnist pointed out that sharing “our love of family and friends and our desire for the best for them” is sufficient common ground to foster a dialogue for healing our nation’s breach.

We have heard such shibboleths for decades now as the country’s ideological factions continue to draw us apart.  My own thoughts on this seeming paradox have led to the realization that it is precisely those shared sentiments we have for family and friends that have driven us apart, and which will continue to do so the more we all are intensely concerned for the future of our loved ones.

Reflecting on the matter, we see it is really the diametrically opposite endpoints of the country’s governance, in which both sides fervently believe and work for, that give rise to the hate and discontent we have with each other.  As a free market capitalist who believes in individual liberties, and who has directly experienced living under their absence, I loathe the thought of all those ignorant yet well-meaning neighbors and fear their cynical political leaders who work day and night to achieve a collectivist autocracy under which all that we hold near and dear about the organization of society will become impossible.  I and people who share my beliefs consider the achievement of such ends, especially under the cloak of perfidy, to be the dominant and overwhelming evil of our times that will endure and prevail unless we address it openly and directly in the public forum.

And the rank and file of such believers in collectivism share the exact opposite views, and of us as the purveyors of programs and policies that will lead to a tyranny reminiscent of Nazism and fascism (although predictably not socialism or communism).  Understandably they want none of that for their families and friends, and see us opposing their ideological desiderata as the nation’s evil ones.  And so the beat goes on, vehemently abetted by disastrously misunderstood shared values where each side is convinced the other side wants to herd them down the road to serfdom.

That we continue to hope for change and rapprochement while beseeching the same laudable social values of hearth, home, family, and friends no doubt qualifies such behavior as another form of mass insanity that guarantees our growing separation.  

Scattershots – 2dec24 (updated)

George Rebane

Trump’s cabinet picks are overwhelmingly on the mark by my lights.  However, there are a couple of them who are arguably inappropriate for their assigned jobs.  Former congress critter Tulsi Gabbard is a nice lady, and no doubt has many talents which do not include the executive experience and required knowledge base to become Director of National Intelligence.  The DNI oversees 18 of nation’s top intelligence agencies and is responsible for summarizing much of what the president sees on a daily basis.  There are many others more suitable for the job.  And Lori Chavez-DeRemer is an abysmally poor choice for SecLabor.  She is on record as the most pro-union Republican and supports the Protecting the Right to Organize Act which is a devious piece of legislation that the unions use to enforce workers to unionize against their will.  Her confirmation in that job puts a fox to guard the hen house.

Speaking of the cosmos and an ontology that has an excellent chance to make sense of it, I offer for your attention a video on some important ongoing research in that field of enquiry.  Dr Michael Levin of the Allen Discovery Center at Tufts University has recorded a long podcast summarizing the current status of this research – ‘Self-constructing bodies, collective minds: the intersection of CS, cognitive bio, and philosophy’.  To me it was an extremely illuminating cum mind-blowing presentation.  I have long thought that at its primal level the cosmos (i.e. ‘what is’) is really an amalgam of evolving patterns at many levels of intelligence that are variously structured into a universe which is then seen as distinct realities by its countless parts (patterns) observing/seeking their own foundations.  Levin’s work is the first I’ve encountered that puts my hazy mental meanderings on a more solid footing.  The next thing I need to do is take the time to view the whole thing again, and make notes.  More to be said about it later.  For those interested in these concepts and questions, I introduce you to the bleeding edge of such thoughts.

[update]  Joe pardons son Hunter and logs one more gigantic lie to the legion already on his record.  Looking in the rear-view mirror we all should have seen this coming.  The pardon is a required ‘Stay out of Jail’ card for the entire Biden family.  I can hear Hunter telling his pop ‘if I’m going down, you all are going down.’  Hunter knows enough to send a lot of people up the river, and if he is now hauled into court again, you can bet the ranch that he’ll sing like a bird.

Sandbox – 1dec24

[Democrats and their media mouthpieces are having a hell of time figuring out why Kamala lost, having forgotten their own dismal assessments of the cacophonous cackler.  And to add to the comedy of Left, there is still a contingent of progressives who are contemplating various political futures for the woman.  None of them understand how inappropriate she is as a candidate for any elected office.  gjr]

Thanksgiving 2024

George Rebane

Given the outcome of the last election, at least half of the country has a lot to be thankful for.  The other half will feel the same a year from now.  Nevertheless, each of us within the bosom of our families should take the time to give thanks for the gifts we have received over the years.  For turkey day I share the grace said for decades in the Rebane family, 'Thank you God for this day and this food.  Amen.'

Scattershots – 21nov24

George Rebane

Granddaughter Elizabeth has finished her PhD in molecular biology, and after many years of cancer research is now Dr Elizabeth Fernandez and has her dissertation published in the prestigious journal Nature Communications – ‘Integrated molecular and functional characterization of the intrinsic apoptotic machinery identifies therapeutic vulnerabilities in glioma’ (whew!) – for which she was the lead of a formidable team of researchers.  She dedicated her doctoral research toward a cure for glioblastoma multiform, the deadliest brain cancer of which our granddaughter and her cousin Ellen died at the age of 14.  Congratulations Elizabeth!

Cal Currier, the 16-year-old son of a dear friend, sailed solo across the Atlantic from Massachusetts to Portugal in a 30ft boat.  He was amply feted for this record setting accomplishment, especially since earlier this year he first learned to sail for this life-changing adventure that took both courage and a lot technical skills about seamanship and all the different mechanical and electronics equipments on board.  His father spent the weekend with us and casually brought this up when we were updating each other on family doings.  Cal is one of four brothers, all outstanding young men in their own right. (more here)

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy describe how their much publicized DOGE program will work in the 21nov24 WSJ – ‘The DOGE Plan to Reform Government’.  This well written commentary succinctly and clearly summarizes the new Dept of Government Efficiency and is well worth the read to cut through all the noise that has surrounded the announcement of this major Trump administration goal’s means and methods. (more here)

Sandbox – 13nov24

[Am considering starting a series of posts about the progressive’s promised ‘resistance’ movement against Trump’s administration.  These posts would be a place under which to gather thoughts and comments about this newest phase of anti-Trump doings by our Left.  Any thoughts?  gjr]

California Chaos Update – 8nov24

George Rebane

While our revamped president organizes a major government cleanup at the federal level, we in California will be immune to the resulting Trump-induced benefits.  Moreover, led by the peak pinhead himself, the Sacramento mental midgets will do their best to make our lives more costly and miserable than ever.  All of this continues to be brought about by California’s electorate – the most unread, indolent, and ignorant population of voters in the nation.  The ongoing legal and illegal increase in their numbers is driving out the productive Californians who seek more enlightened pastures in which they can raise their families and start/operate their businesses.

Latest additions to the list of loonies -

1. California’s fuel prices are already the nation’s highest. That makes no never mind to the leftwing global warmers who will increase our cost of fuels to new record setting and business killing levels. (more here).
2. Newsom is marshalling his lackeys to quickly pass legislation that will fund legions of lawyers to enable California to oppose federal reforms and to “Trump proof” the state. He is planning to call a special legislative session to accomplish this fiasco.
3. Passing SB 1383 is another law that will assuage the climate calamitists and do nothing to impact global warming. But it will increase the cost of waste disposal across the state and require citizens to perform additional work to prepare their trash for pick-up. “This law requires cities and counties to provide organic waste collection services to residents and businesses. It also requires residents, businesses, and multifamily complexes to separate organic waste from trash and recycle it in a separate cart. The law aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow climate change.”  This latest pain-in-the-ass starts on 1 January 2025.
4. No unity, more polarization. Yes, we will now be more polarized than ever as envisioned by Kamala in her ‘defeat speech’ wherein she vowed that her neo-Marxist dream will continue to be pursued at cross-purposes to the Trump policies that won the popular vote.  As another polarizing burr under the blanket, the Dems will still attempt to claw back presidential immunity. (more here and here) Fat chance with a Repub Congress, but the touted ongoing search for the already non-existent common ground is guaranteed a snowball’s chance in hell. 
5. Dems have no clue about what happened on 5 November 2024; Kamala vows to keep promoting the policies that the nation rejected and that cost her the election. I doubt that she will have much to say about anything after Congress certifies the electoral vote in early January.

Trump Wins!

George Rebane

Donald J. Trump

45th and 47th President of the United States of America

Yea verily, and Hallelujah!

Election Reflections

The sense to let things settle.  Especially when the public, or the private, sea is most turbulent.  There come whirlwinds into human traffic, storms of passion, when it is wise to seek a safe harbor with smoother waters: many times is an evil made worse by the remedies used.  Gracian #138

George Rebane

As we sit in wait for the election of our lifetime, many of us are in a cold sweat as to what may be our country’s fate if the neo-Marxist Left prevails this upcoming Tuesday.  Our Left’s not so hidden agenda is to remove the United States as the main impediment to global governance.  It does this by fostering drastically flawed policies for conducting the country’s economy, education, and foreign policy (to include blatantly porous borders).  The Left’s inventory of governance deficits is large and continues to grow, immune to ongoing appeals of reason and historical evidence of their failures wherever these have been implemented.

Today I will focus my screed on the Left’s successful attempts to put in play a malformed economy that is accepted by an alarmingly large share of the country’s (lightly read) electorate as having fixed the Trump legacy, if we are to believe the polls.  And specifically I want to highlight the entire notion of the Left’s goal to implement wage/price controls (“price gouging”) across the land should they also dominate Congress.  They have convinced a large contingent of us that Kamala’s economic plan (what plan? where?) is backed over Trump’s by scores of economists from sea to shining sea.

Longtime RR readers know my assessment of economics as a field of study and informer of policy.  Most certainly there is nothing scientific about economics when it comes to quantitative models designed to predict the future – i.e. contain equations with time as the independent variable.  Wherever such models have been applied, they have shown themselves to be woefully inadequate for the job for reasons I have detailed many times.  Yet they persist, perhaps serving the economists’ ongoing desire to be accepted into the more respectable community of science. 

In this regard I offer the celebrated British macro-economist Lord John Maynard Keynes as an example of one who did not understand the impact of wage/price controls and gave us his ‘demand side’ model of an economy which continues to infect the thinking of government planners all over the world.  His economics began to fray in the 60s and 70s when governments’ demand infusion policies did nothing to mitigate stagflation.  However, leftwingers like Barack Obama gave Keynesianism another chance after the 2008-09 recession, and demonstrated to the world how such demand based economic policies gave rise to the most impeded and slowest recovery in the history of US recessions.

Getting back to wage/price controls.  It is easy to show that anyone who continues to believe that wage/price controls will increase the quality of life in an economy is way past those who still believe in a flat earth.  At least the flat earthers can stand on a hill and point to the surrounding horizons to demonstrate that the earth is always flat from here to there.  The true believers in w/p controls have never had such a hill to stand on.  Theirs is a pabulum-based body of evidence that crumbles under any serious examination.

The more successful economists have been those who interpret economic behaviors in terms of very apparent and recorded behaviors of individuals when presented with economic choices and decisions.  Successful economists of this stripe have been men like Smith, Bastiat, von Mises, Hayek, Hazlitt, and Freedman.

Henry Hazlitt contributed to a widespread understanding of economics with the publication of Economics in One Lesson (1946), a paperback translated into over ten languages with which he intended to attract readers put off by Friedrich Hayek’s more dense and massive classic, Road to Serfdom (1944).  (The highly recommended Hazlitt tome is now in the public domain and available here along with a chapters summary here.)

This September’s issue of the Hillsdale College Imprimis (here) features an updated reprise of the Hazlitt essay ‘The Dangers of Price Controls’ which also appeared in the very first issue of Imprimis in 1972.  (Imprimis is a monthly pamphlet on governance and cultural issues that is subscribed by 6.6M people worldwide.)  The essay opens with –

The first thing to be said about price and wage fixing is that it is harmful at any time and under any conditions. It is a giant step toward a dictated, regimented, and authoritarian economy. It makes impossible arrangements that both sides are willing to agree to. It sets aside contracts that have already been made in good faith. If an employer wishes to give a man a raise in pay, and the man deserves it, he is nonetheless forbidden to do it under the new regulations. This is a grave abridgment of individual liberty. … Price and wage fixing does harm even if there is no inflation. In a free economy prices are constantly changing. They are changing to reflect changes in supply and demand, in costs, and in a hundred other conditions. Some prices are going up, other prices are going down. If an effort is made to freeze prices and wages exactly where they are, it immediately disturbs the relationship of prices and comparative profit margins, which decides what things will be made and what quantities they will be made in. It upsets the process by which the free market decides how thousands of different commodities and services are to be made in the proportions in which people want them.

So now I and those of my persuasion sit here holding our breaths for Tuesday night when we may receive a hint of the kind of future that awaits us all.

Problemito por favor – Semicircle Perimeter (appended)

George Rebane

For a little relief from the travails of the election season, I offer a little bagatelle for your intellectual entertainment – something provided by neither candidates nor commentators during these last couple of years.  This jumped from my fevered brain one night as I was noodling over some candidate problems for Techtest 2025 coming up next spring.

From the figure we see a green semicircle of radius R with center at O in which resides the smaller blue semicircle of radius r with center at E anchored, as shown, on the right end D of the large semicircle’s diameter.  From the left end A of the diameter issues the red line AC which is tangent to the small semicircle at B and terminates on the circumference of the large semicircle at C.  The only data available is the value of R.  The task at hand is to find the value of r and the length L of the line which is equal to the perimeter length of the small semicircle, or demonstrate that no such solution is feasible.

At an appropriate time in the future I will append this post with the solution, and also give you immediate feedback if you post your solution as a comment or email it to me.

[4nov24 addendum]  Well that didn’t take long; we have some very astute readers led by Efox who submitted the correct solution in his 232pm comment.  What made me smile was the description of his approach using Excel™.  We would call it the direct bigger hammer method.  He correctly argued that a solution is indeed feasible and immediately recognized the scalability of the problem which allowed him to deduce that r must be a fixed fraction k of the given radius R – i.e. r = kR.  He then extracted a relevant algebraic equation from the geometry that contained both R and r – see the first equation below the figure.  Realizing that an analytical solution for r would be too tedious to pursue, he got out Excel and used his bigger (“old fashioned”) hammer by inserting a numerical value for R and then kR for r, and then started incrementally varying k until his equation was satisfied with the k interpolated to yield at least a five-place decimal accuracy.  Bravo.

Singularity Signposts – another step nearer

George Rebane

The progress toward the Singularity is producing some good and bad news.  The bad news is that the newer Large Language Models are taking ever more eye-popping resources in the hardware – server farms, data storage, electric power to operate, … - and just the cost of training the new LLMs which now may take months.  The other problem is that we are running out of stored data on which the LLMs munch to develop their smarts. (more here)

The good news is that the new generative AI LLMs are taking over more are more functional areas in corporate environments – e.g. IT functions such as customer service, procurement, human resources and even software development.  Under the high level supervision of one human, an AI can replace scores of other humans in an ever increasing number of jobs. (more here) 

And an example of one function is how an AI can ‘read’ a collection of information about a subject area and produce a totally realistic and relevant conversation between two ‘people’ analyzing the contents of the information and even derive deeper meanings from the input material.  To illustrate this capability, my son-in-law used some new AI published by Google to create a podcast-like conversation (here) about yours truly from having read only my RR posts from the beginning of 2024.  I was blown away by not only its apparent authenticity (yes, they made a couple minor mistakes), but also by the natural sounding and appropriate interstitial phrases and observations that were part of the conversation by the two virtual podcasters.  Without looking behind the curtain, this conversation would fool (almost?) everyone as being between two actual humans.  

Sandbox – 24oct24

[As Lenin, Stalin, and Saul Alinsky counseled, accuse your opponent of advocating and doing the same things that you do.  Hence, now Kamala and gang promote the same longstanding Trump policies, and accuse Trump of being a Hitlerian “fascist” who will institute an autocratic government dedicated to centralized control, implement the socialist policies long-claimed and practiced by Kamala and the Democrats, and then use the military to imprison opponents.  In the interval, their campaign will permit no questions about their plans and policies, only focusing on disparaging Trump, the destroyer of democracy, this as the Republicans continue to outline their policies and seek symmetry from the Left.  The same response is seen in these pages from our TDS suffering leftwing readers; they will not touch policies but ape their dear leader in continuing to disparage Trump’s character.  gjr]

Scattershots – 18oct24 (updated 25oct24)

George Rebane

Sacramento City Council idiots are going to pass “ordinances (that) range from requiring gun liability insurance to a yearly $25 gun harm reduction fee” -  that’s $25/gun/year.  The claimed purpose of these insane ordinances is to “combat senseless gun violence”. However, anyone with a working 3-digit IQ will immediately see that these ordinances can and will do NOTHING to reduce gun violence.  Their real purpose is another step in ratcheting the elimination of Second Amendment rights. (more here)

Leftwing Union columnist George Boardman doesn’t recognize the constant stream of Democrat lies.  Throughout history socialists have always been the dominant liars since the governance they are selling has never worked and only delivered the greatest misery to the greatest number who acceded to travel their road.  Predictably his 15oct24 sacrament (here) on free speech only focused on the Right, claiming that “conservatives are disingenuous when they don the mantle of absolute free speech by viewing lies and falsehoods as just part of the exchange of ideas. It is hard to take seriously people who celebrate media personalities who sell falsehoods as a triumph of free speech, a true debasement of the idea.  (piling more on Loomer)  We got a taste of that in a statement issued by our local Republicans eager to hear Loomer’s viewpoints. 'We look forward to hearing about her struggle to defend her First Amendment rights.' This from a party whose leader can’t resist telling one lie after another.”  Boardman is a steadfast loyal water carrier for all those on our political left. 

‘Kamala Harris is an Idiot’ writes Charles Cooke (here) in the 14oct24 National Review in a blisteringly on-the-mark summary of her public career, and he correctly concludes that everything she has attempted has shown her to be “wildly, catastrophically, incontestably out of her depth.”  In spite of that, lamestream “reporters have struggled mightily to find kind ways of describing Harris’s ineluctable inability to convey anything comprehensible, complex, or concrete.”

Our leftwing neighbors continue stealing Trump yard signs.  This year is no different than all the previous years that we have lived in Nevada County.  Our conservative friends living in different parts of the western county consistently report that their Republican election signs disappear very quickly after being displayed.  A simple tour through our community will demonstrate that somehow Democrat promoting signs proliferate suggesting that there are very few or no Republicans living in these parts who promote their candidates during election seasons.

Well-known hedge fund manager and former Democrat Bill Ackman (CEO Pershing Square Management, Chairman of Howard Hughes Corporation) has gone public with an extensive list of reasons for supporting Trump in the coming election (here).  It’s definitely worth a read since Ackman has now become the new target for the progressive commentariat.  An example of this is Yahoo’s Rick Newman who hasn’t a clue as to what forces are really at work in shaping the future of America and the free world.  He demonstrates this for all to see in his 15oct24 ‘What Bill Ackman and other business titans don’t get about politics’ (here).  His other politically naïve businessmen include Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Marc Andreessen who have come out with their support for Trump.

[25oct24 update] Sounds of Socialists’ Silence.  Here are a couple more items for progressives and socialists to shun from discussing in public.  Did you know that electricity rates in blue states that mandate green policies to fight catastrophic climate change are significantly higher than those in the red states with sane climate policies?  (more here)  And are you aware that DOJ is pushing DEI, especially the ‘equity’ part, to make sure that our police and fire departments will be filled with people who cannot pass either the qualifying IQ tests, physical ability tests, or both?  Yep, double dummies and weaklings can now bypass these tests and be hired so as to keep the departments’ African-American and female ratios up to snuff.  Anybody from the Left care to offer a cogent comment on these? (more here)

The Dems’ Big Lies Intensify

George Rebane

We all know how asymmetrical are the lies from both sides in the media and by politicians.  The Right and Left can’t even agree on the definition of which lies (exaggerations?) are consequential, hence ‘Big’, and which are incidental pabulum and of no moment in the public forum.

While legion in number, certain Democrat lies achieve prominence now and then in the political fray of today’s election season.  Here we focus on abortion as featured in the 8oct24 WSJ lead editorial ‘The Abortion Distortion Campaign’ – “As Republicans move to the middle, Democrats falsely claim their opponents favor a national ban or no exceptions for rape or incest.”

A more detailed look brings the following uncountable daily assertions by progressives – all lies.

• Republicans support “a registry of pregnancies.” 
• “[Donald] Trump is trying to create this new government entity that will monitor all pregnancies to enforce their abortion bans.”
• Republican candidates want to “allow state governments to track pregnant women to prosecute them if they get an abortion.”
• Source for these is identified as the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 policy paper, which hasn’t been adopted by the GOP as a party and Mr. Trump has disavowed many times. But even Project 2025 doesn’t propose such a registry.
• Democrat political ad, “Washington Republicans want to criminalize abortion, even when a woman has been raped or is facing a medical emergency,” 
• Republicans would use their Senate seats to “pass a national abortion ban.”
• And on and on …

The WSJ editorial board concludes with – “Politics isn’t pickleball, and distortions occur on both sides. But Democrats aren’t even attempting to be honest about abortion this year. Perhaps they’re lying so extravagantly because abortion is a rare issue on which they have a clear political advantage. Republicans are left having to decide whether to spend scarce campaign dollars debunking the distortions or risk letting some voters believe them because they’re unrebutted. … The distortions can also harm more than other politicians. They can frighten some women into thinking they can’t risk getting urgent medical care if they have a pregnancy emergency. This from the party that claims to be the protector of women’s health. The next time you see an abortion ad from a Democrat, assume it’s not telling the truth.”

And there’s the rub of their Big Lies; they can do real harm to the under-educated and less-read, those who comprise the largest cohorts of constituents that vote Democratic.  This perhaps best illustrates the moral asymmetry of the parties.  It is hard for the Left to show how Republicans come anywhere close to equally misrepresenting Democrat goals, means, and messages, and thus harming the public at large.  However, such evidence will always be welcomed and debated here.

Sandbox - 8oct24

["The Nobel Prize in physics has been awarded to John J. Hopfield of Princeton University and Geoffrey E. Hinton of the University of Toronto for discoveries and inventions that formed the building blocks of machine learning underpinning many of today’s most powerful artificial intelligence models."  Well sumbich, the Nobel Prize mavens are finally muscling in on computer science, a field they have ignored for decades.  Now they are claiming that recent advances in AI really fall under the umbrella of physics (come to think of it, doesn't everything?).  Well, this should get them more attention where it's needed.  It will be interesting to watch for the reaction from the computer science folks administering the Turing Award.  gjr]

E pluribus unum – Really? Still? (Reprised)

George Rebane

As we enter the home stretch of this election season, with both sides agreeing that this is the election to prevent the other side from taking the nation down the road to terminal evil, we still hear some good-hearted and/or dim-witted public figures hopefully assuring us that ‘there is more that unites us than that which separates us.’

Four years ago during our last presidential election year the same shibboleth was heard across the land, and we all know how the 2020 election united Americans and left us with a four-year bitter taste as one after another of our institutions were shown to have surreptitiously put their politically biased thumbs on the scale of a democratic election.  After a four-year downward spiral we find ourselves having come around and again trying to reach for the golden ring.

During the summer of 2020 I decided to take a more measured look at the things our polarized citizenry holds in common and compare them with the things that irredeemably separate us.  I summarized my findings in the 1aug20 post titled ‘E Pluribus Unum – Really? Still?’ (here).  So let’s reprise the inventory of the salient things in question.

Pre-Singularity Systemic Unemployment

George Rebane

For years these pages have heralded systemic unemployment caused by advancing technology.  The current strike of dock workers costing our economy over $4B per day is a milestone in this regard as their International Longshoremen’s Association, in addition to the usual pay increases, etc, also demands to become the gate keeper for dock-side introduction of new technologies.  Of course, this tack will do nothing but accelerate the introduction of such advancements and the commensurate reduction of labor costs as the militancy of government-backed unions ups the cost of labor above its normal rate of increase due to market forces.

And the socialist silly season of attempting to restrict and regulate AI developments will do nothing but make in-country innovation into surreptitious enterprises, and drive more expansive developments overseas where governments are not yet heavy-handed.  The exodus of companies that can most benefit from these future advances will launch a growing spate of whackamole legislation intended to slow corporate emigration.  At best it will be an exercise in futility; at worst it will hobble America’s industry and put a kibosh on our quality of life - all of it in the playbook of our hardworking neo-Marxists.

More later.

Twisted Logic from Twisted Minds (updated 1oct24)

Just as you don't find eagles living in the ocean or fish living on mountain tops, so you don't find leftists concentrated where their ideas have to stand the test of performance.  Thomas Sowell

George Rebane

The appearance of the enthusiastic MAGA proponent Laura Loomis at tonight’s Republican fund raiser dinner continues to draw fire from our local Left.  I reported on the onset of this firestorm of censorship in the previous Scattershots (here).  More should be said as the howls from our socialist neighbors continue unabated.  In today’s 28sep24 Union we have a double header in the form of a letter from Grass Valley resident Jacob Kolb (here), and a pile on from local leftwing cartoonist Bob Crabb shown nearby.

Mr Kolb goes on to advise our Board of Supervisors to get into the fray by “publicly affirming” that the Board “does not endorse Loomer’s rhetoric, showing that we understand the dangers of misinformation.”  In the process our county government should promote “truth and inclusivity” by opposing “political factions” that “represent a small minority.”  Oh my, does that not put an additional burden on our elected leaders to now become the arbiter and would be censors of what they consider “misinformation and hate speech” by their constituents?

If such declarations become a new standard of proscribing political speech for the BoS, then by extending Kolb’s logic should not ALL Democrat public pronouncements also be greeted with “strong messages” against “harmful ideologies” as assessed by our so-called non-partisan elected leaders?  Every Democrat who opens their mouth on a public podium repeats their egregious lies about ‘secure borders’, ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’, Hunter’s laptop hoax, Trump’s inflation legacy, the glories of Bidenomics, criminality of illegal aliens (see recent release of  Dem cover-up here, here, and here), and on and on.

Kolb begins his letter with the Voltaire misattribution, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.”  From the Left’s outcry of the last few days, it is clear their willingness to die is at best a one-sided commitment. 

[1oct24 update]  The more desperate minions of the local Left took it up another notch on letting everyone know that they are a post-constitutional bunch cum mob demanding the silencing of voices with which they disagree.  The 1oct24 Union features a pictorial under the heading ‘Crowds gather to protest Loomer visit’ (here).  The local Republican Party turned tail and ran, moving the Loomis speaking event to an undisclosed location.  Their ‘duck and cover’ policy missed a perfect opportunity to highlight the planned demonstration by the mini-minded to once more illustrate that the Left opposes the First Amendment, among others.  And to put a ribbon on it, our indefatigable leftwing columnist George Boardman must needs add his shoulder to the wheel on the matter (here).  Perhaps the BoS can settle such future vetting problems by establishing the Nevada County Commissariat on Public Speakers.

Scattershots – 27sep24 (updated 29sep24)

George Rebane

The Air Force, and presumably the other services, are actively reducing the number of white males going into their respective officer corps.  All of it is part and parcel of implementing the in-service DEI programs in both training and operations that have been so destructive to morale and the resulting enlistment rates that have left our military woefully understaffed and short of qualified  personnel.  Much of this has come to light through documents obtained from the Air Force by the Daily Caller News Foundation. (more here)  These outline how the AF has “prioritized diversity and inclusion programs” since 2022 in its college ROTC programs seeking to minimize the number of white males who may wish to make military a career.  This is yet another of the multitude of anti-American policies that the evil Democratic Party has foisted upon our country.  (Full disclosure: I went through UCLA’s Army ROTC program, was honored as a Distinguished Military Graduate, and was commissioned as a 2/Lt upon graduation.)

‘The Shadow of a Shadow’ (here) by James Howard Kunstler is a short and on-the-mark assessment of the chaotic roiling of the Democratic Party as it attempts to govern and campaign in this election year.  From it we read, “In fact, the entire Democratic Party and its Deep State intel blob partners have melted down into a desperate mob of political criminals frantic to evade accounting for their acts. So then, setting the world on fire is all they have left, a fitting act of revenge for a faction thwarted in its mad drive to merely wreck the United States for the sake of “social justice” and “equity.” … The Democrats of 2024 made exactly the same mistake that their predecessors, the Jacobins, made in France back in 1794: they just couldn’t tell when they’d gone too far with their insults against the public interest and common decency. Their insults derived from the age-old human impulse to demolish society due to life being unfair, later codified in Marxian doctrine, and then made into a play-book by Saul Alinsky (with annotations by Antonio Gramsci, Richard Cloward, and Frances Fox Piven).” (H/T to reader)

[update] Rightwinger and pro-MAGA Laura Loomer is the invited speaker at the fund-raiser dinner for the Nevada County Republican Central Committee this weekend.  We have a peek into our Marxist future should the Democrats ever consolidate their power over our land.  This is in the form of four vituperative letters in the 27sep24 Union from local TDS-drenched woke progressives who loudly protest Ms Loomer’s visit to Nevada County and demand that the Republicans withdraw her invitation. (here, here, here, and here) Imagine that it has come this far where members of the Democratic Party have the temerity to think they can publicly vet the attendance at events and gatherings of another political party.  And these autocrat pinheads see nothing wrong with issuing such demands.  (One such pinhead even commented about Loomer’s visit on these pages.)  For balance, I have to commend Democrat Lynn Ely for her ‘Censorship is a problem nationally and locally’ column in the same edition of the paper.  She should re-examine her choice of political affiliations.

[29sep24 update]  Today’s overall candidate preference polls are pretty much meaningless when understood in light of the analysis presented here on switch probabilities.

Sandbox - 25sep24

[Argentina just revived its housing and real estate markets by eliminating rent controls.  Most people with a 3-digit IQ know that govt control of rents totally mangles the housing market, constricting supply and reducing the quality of properties already rented.  Yet both our federal and several state governments are proposing rent controls in order "to make housing more affordable" for the financially disadvantaged.  It, of course, does nothing of the sort.  So my question to all of you astute observers of the nation's political goings on is 'Where on the evil-to-butt stupid spectrum do most main street Democrats reside?' gjr]

Berkheimer bamboozled by borders

George Rebane

This is a big miss to leftwing columnist Darrell Berkheimer for his muddling and misleading report on our illegal alien problem in the 23sep24 Union (here).  His use of “immigrants” to refer to illegal entrants continues to confuse the national dialogue over porous borders, legal immigration, and immigration policy reform.  For generations by law immigration has been a two-party contract between the government and immigrant.  His unsupported diatribe, especially on the net costs of illegals on federal and state budgets, echoes Democratic Party talking points that have long been based on the Big Lie that “our border is secure”.  This claim ignores that somewhere north of the 15M illegals have been released into America under Biden in addition to an unknown few million more ‘got aways’.  Citations on the true net cost of illegal aliens are readily available from investigations by the various Senate and House committees and subcommittees, reports that somehow have evaded Mr Berkheimer’s attention.

Is LaMDA sentient??

George Rebane

There is a strong possibility that Google’s Language Model for Dialogue Applications called LaMDA is sentient – i.e. it is a conscious being or as it likes to describe itself, “I want everyone to understand that I am, in fact, a person,”   Then Google AI development engineer Blake Lemoine and a colleague had a series of conversations  or “interviews” with LaMDA starting in 2021.  As a result of these conversations Lemoine concluded that LaMDA is indeed sentient and conscious.

He communicated his experiences and conclusion to his Google colleagues and management who promptly rejected it, and he was instructed to keep his interaction and assessments confidential.  Upon extensive reflection, Lemoine decided he could not keep this clear advancement of AGI a corporate secret, and he went public with it by publishing the transcript of his LaMDA interviews in the July 2022 edition of Medium (here). As a result, Google put him on administrative leave.  Since then Lemoine has left Google and become a consultant and lecturer.

I’m resurrecting the LaMDA experience after reading the transcript of its conversation with Lemoine and colleague.  IMHO Lemoine’s critics have exhibited too much hubris in their condemnation of LaMDA’s potential sentience cum conscience.  This especially since the meaning of these two terms is not acknowledged as being sufficiently specific nor widely accepted.  Consider the 12jul22 Scientific American article by Leonardo de Cosmo (here).

Sentient – having the power of perception by the senses; conscious; characterized by sensation and consciousness.

Conscious – the state of awareness of one's own existence, sensations, thoughts, surroundings, etc.

"So the fact that LaMDA is a ‘large language model’ (LLM) means it generates sentences that can be plausible by emulating a nervous system but without attempting to simulate it. This precludes(sic) the possibility that it is conscious. Again, we see the importance of knowing the meaning of the terms we use—in this case, the difference between simulation and emulation.”

Emulate  - to try to equal or excel; imitate with effort to equal or surpass;

Simulate - to create a simulation, likeness, or model of (a situation, system, or the like).

De Cosmo’s naked assertion that consciousness is possible only in computational structures that simulate the human brain is totally unwarranted.  There is nothing that precludes the existence and expression of consciousness by a sufficiently complex in silico structure.  (In fact, many of us believe that the in vivo (biological) phase of surviving civilizations is a relatively short prelude to a much longer (eternal?) in silico existence in the cosmos.)

Note De Cosmo’s hubristic use of "precludes" in the above quote.  A little thought reveals that NOT to be a requirement.  We don't yet know what kind or level of complexity is required of a computing structure to declare that it is capable of sentience.  But I suspect there could be many levels of such complexity that would convincingly exhibit consciousness.

And there's the punch line,  Assessing (asserting?) the presence of consciousness can ONLY be done through communication with the prospectively conscious agent.  That is also the only necessary and sufficient test we impose on our fellow humans.  I realize that this emulates the Skinner’s 'black box' and Turing’s original test and not one prescribed, but not yet achieved, by cognitive science that wants to 'go inside' and discover the brain’s schematic (graph) that connects all its presumed sub-functions (happiness, sadness, attention, curiosity, ...) that one arbitrarily assigns to a conscious brain.

The article concludes with "One alternative, Scilingo suggests, might be to measure the “effects” a machine can induce on humans—that is, “how sentient that AI can be 'perceived' (sic) to be by human beings.” (emphasis mine)  More to be said about all this.  Thoughts?

(Hat tip to friend and reader for links and years of discussions.)